美联储12月会议解读：美联储延续宽松，但未来降息步伐或放缓

Report Overview - Title: "Fed Continues to Ease, but Future Rate Cut Pace May Slow - Interpretation of the Fed's December Meeting" [1] - Researcher: Wan Liang - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed continued to cut interest rates in December, but there are internal differences regarding inflation and the labor market, and the willingness to continue cutting rates is low. In the long - term, the Fed is expected to continue the rate - cut path, but the pace may slow down without further support from labor market and inflation data. The US economy is not in recession but shows signs of weakening, and its future depends on the sustainability of the AI narrative. Different asset classes are expected to have diverse price trends [9][10][16]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 December Fed Meeting Highlights - Interest Rate Decision: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% on December 11, the third rate cut this year. The vote was 9 - 3, with different views between hawks and doves [3]. - Economic Projections: The economic growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were revised upward by 0.1pct, 0.5pct, and 0.1pct respectively. The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was revised down by 0.1pct, and the core PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.1pct [4]. - Rate Dot Plot: The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is 3.4%, and 3.1% in 2027, suggesting one 25 - basis - point rate cut each year [5]. - Powell's Remarks: Powell said that "the next move will be a rate hike" is not a basic assumption. The labor market is cooling gradually, inflation in non - tariff areas has made progress, and the end of the government shutdown in October - November led to an upward revision of the 2026 growth forecast [7][8]. 3.2 Price Trends of Major Asset Classes - Positive Market Reaction: After the Fed's dovish statement, US bond yields fell, US stocks rose, the dollar declined, precious metals and some commodities like oil and copper increased, while Bitcoin and Ethereum had mixed performances [11][12]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed's Monetary Policy - Economic Situation: The US economy is weakening but not in recession. The labor market is slowing, inflation has some resilience, and the economy depends on the AI narrative [14][16]. - Monetary Policy Outlook: The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates, and the number of rate cuts in 2026 is expected to exceed 50 basis points [16]. 3.4 Views on Future Asset Trends - US Stocks: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the high - growth of emerging industries boost optimism, but risks are accumulating, and future volatility may increase [17]. - US Treasury Bonds: Short - term yields have declined, while long - term yields are constrained. If the economy slows further, both short - and long - term yields may fall [17]. - Precious Metals: Gold has long - term value but may face short - term correction risks. Silver is more affected by speculation and liquidity [17]. - Commodities: Global - priced commodities are rising, while domestic - priced commodities are weak and need "anti - involution" policies [18]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle, and the RMB is expected to enter an appreciation channel [18]. - Stock Index Futures: Although the macro - economy has limited recovery momentum, Chinese equity assets are promising in the long - term, and the volatility center of index futures is expected to rise [20].