12月FOMC会议：如期降息，表态中性偏鸽

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On December 10, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%–3.75%[1] - The Fed's statement was more dovish than market expectations, with a 90% pre-meeting consensus on a rate cut, but concerns about it being the last cut were prevalent[1] - The Fed restarted short-term bond purchases, with a monthly expansion of $40 billion, to maintain ample reserve levels[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 while lowering inflation and unemployment rate expectations, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic outlook[1] - The unemployment rate description was updated to reflect a more pronounced weakening in the labor market, with average monthly non-farm job gains since April being only 40,000[1] - The dot plot indicated that four members expect the 2025 rate to be between 3.75% and 4.00%, showing internal dissent within the FOMC[1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the dovish Fed statement, market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 were adjusted, leading to an increase in major U.S. stock indices and a decline in bond yields[1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a significant probability of rate cuts in 2026, with expectations for approximately two cuts throughout the year[5][11]