股指期货周报：会议部署明年经济发展重点，股指本周继续震荡-20251213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds. After the consolidation, the stock index still has upward momentum, as the Fed cuts interest rates by 25BP, the Politburo meeting sets the tone for 2026, and the economic work conference makes directional arrangements [3]. - The international situation is complex, but positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US enters a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflow. Current policies for stabilizing the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. The Politburo and economic work conferences give directional guidance, and the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. The future strength of the index depends on trading volume [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%, and the NASDAQ index fell 1.62%. Different industries showed differentiated trends, with sectors such as communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics rising, while coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel sectors falling [11][15]. Liquidity - In November, the growth rate of the total social financing scale was stable, while the growth rates of M2 and M1 declined. The M2 - M1 gap widened to 3.1 percentage points. The 11 - month cumulative social financing increment was 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.99 trillion yuan year - on - year. The government bond and corporate bond net financing contributed significantly. The 11 - month M2 balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%, and the M1 balance was 112.88 trillion yuan [13][14][16]. Trading Data and Emotions - From January to November 2025, the number of new stock accounts opened by retail investors in the A - share market was 24.5902 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.95%. The number of new accounts opened by institutional investors was 93,400, a year - on - year surge of 35%. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets slightly increased to 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index [24]. Index Valuation - As of December 12, 2020, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level, but the quantile was relatively high. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.23, with a quantile of 79.03, and the latest PB of the entire market was 21.73, with a quantile of 81.60. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantile relationship was CSI 500 < CSI 1000 < SSE 50 < SSE 300 [33]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, the top - weighted industries in the SSE 50 were banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage. The weights of the SSE 300 were more dispersed, with the top three being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries in the CSI 500 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance, and in the CSI 1000 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [47][48][52]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies are mainly characterized by loose fiscal and monetary policies. For example, in May 2025, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 300 - billion - yuan service consumption and pension refinancing loan was established. The Politburo meeting in December emphasized the role of the "strong domestic market" in expanding domestic demand, and the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies and stabilize the real estate market [53][54][55].