海外经济政策跟踪：日央行加息在即，市场冲击或可控

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates as expected and initiated a technical expansion of its balance sheet, with rate cuts anticipated to continue into 2026[1] - The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, but the impact on the market is expected to be limited[1] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 1.0%, while developed market indices fell by 0.3% during the week of December 4-12, 2025[4] - Gold prices increased by 2.2%, and copper prices rose by 0.8%, while the S&P-Goldman commodity index fell by 2.1%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.19%[4] Inflation and Confidence Indicators - The 5-year inflation expectation rose by 2 basis points to 2.32%, while the 10-year expectation remained stable at 2.26%[9] - The U.S. Sentix investor confidence index increased to 9.7 from 4.0 in the previous month[9] European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index improved to -6.2 from -7.4[17] - Long-term bond yields in the Eurozone have risen, with the 30-year and 10-year yields increasing by 13 basis points and 15 basis points, respectively[17] Policy Outlook - The European Central Bank is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the short term, as the economy is in a relatively good position[19] - The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike is already priced in, with the yen showing a slight appreciation recently[20]