GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-13 12:51Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The November CPI data continues the growth trend from October, emphasizing the growth of consumer goods and low-value stocks. The price of Feitian Moutai remains volatile, with Moutai signaling stable pricing. The liquor industry is gradually clearing inventory, and attention is drawn to the upcoming peak season's volume and price rhythm [3][10] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the importance of the November CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a core CPI increase of 1.2%. It emphasizes growth as the main line and points out opportunities arising from supply and demand clearing. Recommended stocks include: 1. Liquor: Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Liquor, and Jinhuijiu, with stable stocks like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao 2. Beverages: Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring (Hong Kong), focusing on low valuation and high dividend stocks like China Foods (Hong Kong), Master Kong Holdings (Hong Kong), Uni-President China (Hong Kong), and China Want Want (Hong Kong) 3. Snacks and food raw materials: Recommended stocks include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, Weilong Delicious (Hong Kong), Three Squirrels, and Ximai Foods 4. Beer: Recommendations include Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Bai Run Shares, as well as China Resources Beer (Hong Kong) 5. Seasonings and livestock: Recommended stocks include Qianhe Flavor Industry, Baoli Foods, Babi Foods, Anji Foods, Haitian Flavor Industry, Angel Yeast, Yili Group, New Dairy, Youran Livestock (Hong Kong), and Modern Animal Husbandry (Hong Kong) [6][9] White Liquor Market - The price of Feitian Moutai dropped below 1499 yuan but has since rebounded. The liquor sector is seen as a cyclical asset, with stock prices expected to bottom out ahead of fundamentals due to policy expectations. The report notes that the price drop was influenced by a temporary increase in supply and year-end channel funding needs. Moutai has communicated signals of controlled supply and rational distribution, with prices rebounding to above 1500 yuan [11][12] Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes growth in consumer goods, particularly in snacks. The popularity of konjac products continues, with leading brands enhancing their brand value. Recent events, such as the health snack launch by Weilong Delicious and the brand strategy announcement by Yanjinpuzi, are expected to promote sustained growth in konjac snacks [13] Livestock Industry - The report indicates a bottoming cycle in the livestock sector, with potential for a rebound in profitability. Factors contributing to this include a reduction in supply and an increase in demand for processed dairy products. The report anticipates a rise in milk prices in 2026 due to improved supply-demand balance and increased domestic production capacity [14][15]