蛋白粕周报：天气暂无明显问题，国内传到港延迟-20251213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Viewpoint - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [9][10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International soybeans: US soybeans continued to decline this week. Although purchases from China and a low domestic stocks - to - use ratio in the US provided support, a high global stocks - to - use ratio and slow sales progress limited the upside. Brazilian soybean premiums increased by about 8 cents per bushel, and the arrival cost of soybeans decreased by about 60 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans shipped in February is about 3,624 yuan/ton. Rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas has recovered, but most areas in Argentina expect less rainfall. The USDA forecasts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, with the global stocks - to - use ratio falling from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support [9]. - Domestic double - meal: There were delays in domestic arrivals this week. Soybean meal spot prices first fell and then rose, with basis fluctuating. Futures prices were volatile, and oil mills' purchasing profits showed a small loss. Domestic soybean meal transactions were fair, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher year - on - year, and the de - stocking progress was slow. As of December 9, the purchased volumes for September, October, November, and December were 876, 773, 620, and 497 tons respectively. The current purchasing progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and the high level of domestic soybean meal提货 provides some support for the domestic soybean basis [9]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The report did not provide specific suggestions for arbitrage trading [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot price: The document provides the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - Basis of the main contract: It shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - Spread: The document presents historical spread trends such as soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, soybean meal 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23]. - Fund position: It shows the historical net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27]. 3. Supply Side - US soybean planting progress: The document provides historical data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32]. - Weather conditions: There is information on rainfall in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, and the possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January is mentioned [34][36][37]. - US soybean export progress: The document shows the historical data of US soybeans' total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the annual sales completion rate, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments to China [49][50]. - China's oilseed imports: It presents the historical monthly import volumes and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53]. - China's oil mill crushing: The document shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [54][55]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed inventory: It shows the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills in China [58][59]. - Protein meal inventory: The document presents the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in coastal major oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills in China [61][62]. - Protein meal crushing profit: It shows the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64]. 5. Demand Side - Protein meal demand: The document shows the historical cumulative transactions of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [65][66]. - Breeding profit: It shows the historical average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the historical breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][68].