尿素周报：利好兑现，价格再度走弱-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of urea declined again after the positive factors were digested and the energy - chemical sector weakened. However, considering the current demand, seasonal decline in gas - based supply, and high - level inventory reduction, the downside space is expected to be limited. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Supported by compound fertilizer and reserve demand, the price had been rising. This week, it declined due to positive factor digestion and the weakening of the energy - chemical sector. Currently, demand is okay, gas - based supply is seasonally decreasing, and enterprise inventory continues to decline from a high level [12]. - Supply: Domestic enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, a 0.02% week - on - week increase, and is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term. The latest daily production is 19.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.04 million tons [12]. - Demand: Reserve demand is gradually decreasing, while compound fertilizer demand is fair, with a 40.62% operating rate, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Future demand should focus on changes in off - season storage and export demand [12]. - Fundamentals: Enterprise profits weakened slightly again and are still at a low level. The basis strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread declined [12]. - Valuation: Export profits are at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - Inventory: This week, enterprise inventory was 1.2342 billion tons, a decrease of 563,000 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline from a high level. Port inventory was 123 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons week - on - week, and the speed of goods gathering at ports accelerated [12]. - Market Logic: The decrease in reserve demand and the weakening sentiment in the energy - chemical sector led to the price decline, but the downside space is limited [12]. - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: The prices of 09, 01, and 05 contracts all decreased compared to a week ago. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1 [13]. - Domestic Spot Market: The prices in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan remained unchanged, and in Hebei decreased by 20. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all increased [13]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei increased by 50, and the price of melamine increased by 16. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 1, in Hubei increased by 20, and the profit of melamine increased by 46 [13]. - International Prices: International prices such as FOB Arabian Gulf, FOB Baltic, etc., all decreased, and the export profit of urea decreased by 76 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: The production profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all had certain fluctuations, and enterprise profits weakened slightly again and were at a low level [30][31][34]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory continued to decline from a high level, and port inventory increased. The inventory of urea warehouses also had corresponding changes [38][42]. 3.4. Supply Side - Urea Operating Rate: The gas - based operating rate decreased seasonally, while the coal - based operating rate increased. The overall supply is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the future [48]. - Device Maintenance: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, resulting in certain production losses. There are also some planned maintenance devices in the future [51][52]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption Forecast: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics [56]. - Compound Fertilizer: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 40.62%, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. The production profit and the ratio of urea to compound fertilizer also had corresponding changes [59][60]. - Nitrogen Source Price Ratio: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all had certain fluctuations [68]. - Melamine: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all had corresponding changes [71]. - Terminal Demand: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all had certain impacts on the demand for urea [79]. - Export: The export profit of urea was at a high level, and the export volume and the export volumes of other fertilizers also had corresponding changes [90]. 3.6. Options - Related - Urea Options: The trading volume, open interest, and PCR of urea options all had certain fluctuations, and the volatility of urea options also changed with the futures price [98]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Urea Industry Chain: The report analyzed the characteristics of the urea industry chain, including the fertilizer demand of different crops in different regions and different seasons, and the seasonal characteristics of global fertilizer demand [111].