甲醇周报：单边震荡偏弱，月间价差持续走强-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 05 contract was pressured due to the accelerated destocking of port inventories and the overall macro - pessimism about the future. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. The reality and expectations were average, with the single - side trend being weakly volatile and short - term contradictions not being sharp [11]. - The macro - expectations weakened, and the accelerated port destocking led to the strengthening of the inter - month spread, but the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - After the bullish factors were realized, the market entered a short - term consolidation. The significant decline in imports led to accelerated destocking of port inventories, but there were doubts about future destocking. The shutdown of port MTO plants was realized, and short - term demand weakened. MTO profits continued to decline. The enterprise profits on the supply side returned to a neutral position, and the operating rate remained at a high level in the same period, with overall supply at a high level [11]. - As the bullish factors were realized, the market would return to the reality logic. The methanol fundamentals still had certain pressure, and it was expected to be mainly sorted out at a low level. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The 05 contract was pressured, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly, and the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The domestic operating rate was 89.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%, at a high level year - on - year. The arrival volume was 24.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.82 tons. The port MTO operating rate was 77.54%, a decrease of 9.94% from last week, and the plant shut down as scheduled [11]. - Demand: The operating rates of traditional demand such as formaldehyde and MTBE decreased, while others increased, with overall improvement. Enterprise profits returned to a neutral level [11]. - Valuation: Port MTO profits continued to decline, currently neutral. The overall methanol valuation was relatively neutral [11]. - Inventory: Port inventories were 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. Production enterprise inventories were 35.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons, at a low level year - on - year [11]. - Market Logic: Weak macro - expectations and accelerated port destocking led to the strengthening of the inter - month spread, but the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - Summary: After the bullish factors were realized, the market entered a short - term consolidation. There were doubts about future destocking. Short - term demand weakened, MTO profits declined, and overall supply was at a high level. The market was expected to be sorted out at a low level [11]. - Strategy: Wait and see [11] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - The document mainly presents various charts related to methanol's term structure, basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest, such as the methanol term structure chart, 01 contract basis chart, 1 - 5 spread chart, 01 contract open interest chart, and total open interest chart [20][22][25] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Energy Prices: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and power coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao are presented [31][33][36] - Profit Calculation: Charts of profit calculations for coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia, Southwest gas - based methanol production, Shandong coal - based methanol production, and MA - 2*ZC are presented [39] - Inventory Situation: Port inventories are at a high level and are continuously being destocked. Charts of various regional inventories such as port inventories, East China port inventories, South China port inventories, and factory inventories are presented [41][42][49] 3.4. Supply Side - Domestic and Overseas Operating Rates: Charts of domestic methanol operating rates, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol operating rates are presented. The domestic operating rate is at a high level [53] - Import Volume: Charts of import volume and its breakdown by country (Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia) are presented [55][59] - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume has declined. Charts of arrival volumes in East China, South China, and the whole of China are presented [64][65] - International Spreads and Domestic Freight: Charts of import profits, international price spreads, and domestic methanol freight are presented [67][70][79] 3.5. Demand Side - Demand Deduction: Charts of methanol consumption and ending inventories are presented [84] - Methanol - to - Olefins: Charts related to the olefin operating rate, Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO operating rate, and MTO - related spreads and profits are presented. The port MTO operating rate has decreased [86][87][98] - PP Production Profits: Charts of production profits of PP through various processes (oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based) are presented [95] - Other Downstream Industries: Charts of operating rates and profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and other downstream industries, as well as downstream inventory, are presented [106][108][110] 3.6. Option - Related - Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and option volatility are presented [121][123] 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Charts of the methanol industry chain and the methanol research framework analysis mind - map are presented [126][128]