氧化铝周报：悲观情绪蔓延，基本面维持承压-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rainy season in Guinea is over, and the AXIS mine is resuming production, so the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost level of Guinea's ore. - The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. - The current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, so the expectation of subsequent production cuts is increasing. The overall non - ferrous metal sector is showing strong performance, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3 pm on December 12, the alumina index dropped 2.42% to 2544 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 35,000 lots to 638,000 lots. Supply surplus, falling ore prices, and approaching delivery of expired warehouse receipts drove the alumina futures price down continuously. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The delivery game led to a large discount of the futures price. The spread between the first and the third consecutive contracts closed at - 155 yuan/ton, and the spread was widening [11]. - Spot Price: This week, the decline of alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 57,000 tons to 5.061 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 16,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 62,000 tons, and decreased by 11,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.16 million tons to 254,900 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 258,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week [11]. - Mineral End: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. The price of domestic ore remains firm, but alumina plants' willingness to push down prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ore, after the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume has increased. The AXIS mine, which stopped operation in May this year, has gradually resumed production, which may further exacerbate the bauxite surplus situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - Supply Side: As of December 13, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 1.859 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week [12]. - Import and Export: As of December 12, the FOB price in Australia remained at $312 per ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 58 yuan/ton. The import window was closed [12]. - Demand Side: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.64 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: The decline of alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21]. - Futures Price and Basis: As of 3 pm on December 12, the alumina index dropped 2.42% to 2544 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 35,000 lots to 638,000 lots. Supply surplus, falling ore prices, and approaching delivery of expired warehouse receipts drove the alumina futures price down continuously. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The delivery game led to a large discount of the futures price. The spread between the first and the third consecutive contracts closed at - 155 yuan/ton, and the spread was widening [24]. - Bauxite Price: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ore, the CIF price of Guinea decreased by $0.5 to $70 per ton, and that of Australia decreased by $0.5 to $67.5 per ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume has increased. The AXIS mine, which stopped operation in May this year, has gradually resumed production, which may further exacerbate the bauxite surplus situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - Bauxite Production: In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 55.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. Affected by environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - Bauxite Import: In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. From the perspective of import sources, in October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports decreased, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports from Australia in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [33][35][37]. - Bauxite Inventory: In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 0.78 million tons to 53.29 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 0.27 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 0.47 million tons in November. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - Alumina Production: In November 2025, alumina production was 7.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 82.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19%. In terms of operating capacity, in November 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 95.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%. As of December 12, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 1.859 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week [42][45]. - Alumina Plant Profit: The alumina spot price has declined. Although the raw material prices have also decreased, the profits of alumina plants are still under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on December 12, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ore, the current production profit can reach 100 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong are 20 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The transportation cost of imported ore from ports for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the gross profits of using overseas ore in Shanxi and Henan have dropped to 170 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - Alumina Import and Export: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the previous import window led to the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of December 12, the FOB price in Australia remained at $312 per ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 58 yuan/ton [50][52]. - Overseas Alumina Production: In November 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 57.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.42% [54]. 3.4 Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 40.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.67% [59]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.64 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The document provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated) and the cumulative data for 2025, including information on the supply - demand gap, total demand, net exports, total supply, export volume, import volume, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity [65]. 3.6 Inventory - Alumina Social Inventory: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 57,000 tons to 5.061 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 16,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 62,000 tons, and decreased by 11,000 tons respectively [70]. - Alumina Futures Inventory: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 0.16 million tons to 254,900 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 258,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week [71].