锌周报：有色情绪退潮，供应延续收紧-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of non - ferrous metals is ebbing, and the supply of zinc continues to tighten. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains. Although the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the 11th was unexpectedly dovish and restarted balance - sheet expansion, driving precious metals and non - ferrous metals to rise rapidly, the dot - plot only prices in one 25bps rate cut next year, and the stimulus of the Fed's monetary policy before March 18 next year is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.68% at 23,621 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 219,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 220,100 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,700 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 65 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was 80 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 235,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - Market Trends: The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased, and the TC of zinc concentrate continued to decline. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, while the LME zinc ingot inventory slowly increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly. At the current Shanghai - London ratio, there is still an element gap in China. Coupled with the production cuts of zinc smelting enterprises, the domestic spot side has tightened marginally [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - The report presents multiple macro - economic data charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of US national debt to GDP and the total national debt, the Fed's balance - sheet asset and liability structure, US and Chinese manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing new orders and unfilled orders, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US aluminum and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In November 2025, the zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [33][35]. - Processing Fees: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - Stage Operating Rates: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - Apparent Demand: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52]. - Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 139,900 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton [63]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [64]. - Position Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc is relatively high. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc is rising, and the net short position of commercial enterprises is rising. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bullish [67].