热卷周报：会议定调宽松，政策托底钢需-20251213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment in the commodity market was generally weak, and the prices of finished products showed a volatile trend. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, with an overall performance of being neutral and stable. The output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, the pressure on inventory reduction increased further, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in the factory warehouse this week. [9][10] - Politburo and Central Economic Work Conferences were held this week. The meetings emphasized boosting domestic demand, optimizing project implementation and bond management, and stabilizing the real estate market. The real estate industry will continue the main tone of "controlling increments and reducing inventories", and new construction is expected to remain weak. Fiscal efforts will support the economy and steel demand marginally. Overall, steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak, and the demand structure may shift towards infrastructure and manufacturing. Currently, the terminal demand is still weak, the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent, and steel prices may fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of the winter storage season, attention should be paid to winter storage policies. [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost Side: The profit of hot-rolled blast furnaces was -51 yuan/ton, the gross profit level was low, the spot premium was about 57 yuan/ton, and the valuation was neutral. [7] - Supply Side: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 3.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.292 million tons, and the decline of hot metal this week slightly exceeded expectations, with a slight decline in hot - rolled coil output. [7] - Demand Side: This week, the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3.12 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. The export level was moderately strong, the terminal demand in real estate and infrastructure was poor, and the demand was moderately weak. [8] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 397,090 tons, the inventory level was high, and the current inventory pressure was large. [9] - Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy was to wait and see. [11] Periodic and Spot Market - The content mainly presents various price and spread charts of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and related products, including spot prices, regional spreads, contract basis spreads, and futures spreads. [16][20][34] Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. [56][57] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and factory inventory of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates. [60][64][65] Cost Side - The content includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore, coke, and the price of scrap steel. It also shows the daily average output of hot metal, the cost of hot metal, and the prices of related steel products. [78][80][84] Supply Side - Hot - Rolled Coils: Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in different regions and samples. [93][95][96] - Cold - Rolled Coils: Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of cold - rolled coils in different regions and samples. [100][103][104] - Coated Plates: Charts show the weekly output and capacity utilization rate of color - coated plates and galvanized plates. [105][106] Demand Side - Hot - Rolled Coils: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Charts also show the apparent consumption and its cumulative year - on - year growth rate. [8][109][110] - Related Industries: Charts show the production and sales of automobiles (including different types), tractors, household appliances (refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines), metal containers, railway locomotives, and other products that affect the demand for steel. [112][116][118]