油脂周报：马棕累库现实施压油脂-20251213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, the three major oils showed a weak downward trend. The market's bullish sentiment subsided due to the expected bearish December Malaysian palm oil monthly report, and the oils declined. The December 10th Malaysian palm oil report showed unexpected inventory accumulation and a higher-than-expected decline in exports, causing the oils to continue to fall. For rapeseed oil, due to the shutdown of most coastal oil mills lacking seeds, the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline, but the supply of Russian rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed filled a certain gap, and the upside space was also pressured. For soybean oil, on one hand, the import cost of soybeans decreased, and on the other hand, it followed the decline of other oils and was mainly weak [11]. - According to the normal production levels and international demand in previous years, palm oil will enter a rapid de - stocking rhythm in the first quarter of next year. This year, the production in Malaysia and Indonesia is larger than the same period last year. The first quarter is the off - season for oil demand. If the palm oil production in Southeast Asia remains at a high level at this time, the expected de - stocking may reverse. Currently, the data of the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in Indonesia's September production has boosted the market, but Malaysia's production is still large and the export data is poor, so the weak trend of palm oil is difficult to ease [11]. - This week, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total inventory of domestic oils continued to decline, and the oil supply was relatively sufficient. The soybean crushing volume was still high, the soybean oil production was large, and the de - stocking effort was insufficient. The rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline due to less imports, and the palm oil inventory remained stable due to low import volume. The total inventory of domestic oils maintained a slow downward trend [11]. - This year, the unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the performance of the palm oil market, and the poor export data of Malaysian palm oil has also restricted the rebound. However, the current situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year because the seasonal decline in production is relatively smaller than the seasonal decline in global demand. Strategically, there are no bullish signals in Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, and the bearish factors are still fermenting, but there is a bullish trend seasonally. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The three major oils were weak and declined this week. The market's bullish sentiment subsided due to the expected bearish December Malaysian palm oil monthly report. The December 10th report showed unexpected inventory accumulation and a higher - than - expected decline in exports, causing the oils to continue to fall. Rapeseed oil inventory declined due to mill shutdowns, but imports filled the gap. Soybean oil followed the decline due to lower import costs and the weakness of other oils [11]. - International Oils: According to normal production and demand, palm oil will enter a de - stocking period in the first quarter of next year. However, this year's high production in Malaysia and Indonesia and the off - season demand may reverse the de - stocking if production remains high. The decline in Indonesia's September production has boosted the market, but Malaysia's situation is still poor [11]. - Domestic Oils: The spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total inventory continued to decline, with sufficient supply. Soybean oil production was large but de - stocking was insufficient, rapeseed oil inventory declined due to less imports, and palm oil inventory was stable due to low imports [11]. - Viewpoint Summary: High production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, and poor export data has restricted the rebound. However, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse seasonally. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [11][12][13] 02. Futures and Spot Markets - The document provides multiple charts showing the basis and basis seasonality of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, etc. [18][20][22] 03. Supply Side - Palm Oil Production and Exports: The document shows the monthly production and export data of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export data of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil through charts [27][28]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Supply: It shows the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly rapeseed imports, and monthly rapeseed oil imports through charts [29][31]. - Palm Oil Production Area Weather: It provides information on the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production areas and related climate indices [33][34] 04. Profit and Inventory - Total Inventory: The document shows the total inventory of domestic three major oils and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils through charts [40]. - Palm Oil: It shows the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil through charts [43]. - Soybean Oil: It shows the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills through charts [45]. - Rapeseed Oil: It shows the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed in coastal areas and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China through charts [46]. - Origin Palm Oil Inventory: It shows the inventory of Malaysian palm oil and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil through charts [48] 05. Cost Side - Palm Oil Cost: It shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil through charts [50][52]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost: It shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed through charts [54] 06. Demand Side - Oil Transactions: It shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year through charts [57]. - Biodiesel Profit: It shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) through charts [59]