铁矿石周报：宏观落地，消息纷扰-20251213

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and there are no signs of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradictions, yet the spot still has some support. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and with the implementation of export license management for some steel products starting from January 1st next year, it is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract. [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipping volume was 33.686 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 454,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.553 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.105 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.674 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47 million tons, with 15.882 million tons shipped to China, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.574 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.148 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. [13] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. [13] - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons. [13] - Summary: Overseas iron ore shipping volume increased slightly. Australia's shipping volume rebounded, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipping volume, while Brazil's shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high this year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.3 million tons. Some blast furnace overhauls were affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rest were mainly annual inspections with relatively long shutdown times. The steel mill profitability rate declined slightly. Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory was at a low level in the same period. It is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. [13][14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 138 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 0.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 14.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 73.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [25] - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/wet ton. [28] - Freight: No specific analysis of freight changes is provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. [30] 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 154.3142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3061 million tons. The pellet inventory was 296,470 tons, a week - on - week increase of 59,300 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.31422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 483,100 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.05733 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,400 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 66.6743 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3676 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 58.0704 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,900 tons. [35][38][41] - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,530 tons. [45] 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipping: The shipping volume from Australia to China at 19 ports was 15.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.752 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.542 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 6.284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.705 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 3.896 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.822 million tons. Vale's shipping volume was 4.781 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.681 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 3.621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons. [50][53][56] - Arrival and Import: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [59] - Domestic Mines: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 58.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 45,380 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons. [65] 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Capacity Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points. [70] - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74,000 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons. [73] 3.6 Basis As of December 12th, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 61.03 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.43%. [78]