棉花周报：持续增仓，多空博弈加剧-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the peak season was lackluster, but demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there was no strong driving force in the short term. Coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In the external market, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was 63.83 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.12 cents per pound from the previous week, a decline of 0.19%. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton was - 1.1 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.04 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,850 yuan per ton, an increase of 130 yuan per ton from the previous week, an increase of 0.95%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,062 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis was 1,215 yuan per ton, a decrease of 90 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was - 15 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - Industry Information: As of the week of December 12, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with the previous week, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 7.7 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years (73.07%). The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year. According to the latest December monthly supply - demand report data released by the USDA, the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was revised down by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared with November. Among them, the US production forecast was revised up by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons; the Brazilian production forecast remained at 4.08 million tons; the Indian production forecast remained at 5.23 million tons; and the Chinese production forecast remained at 7.29 million tons [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high, and the recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [9][10][11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread, spinning mill immediate profit, and various spreads of US cotton and other international spreads [24][26][28] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: The report shows the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [38][39]. - Cotton Import Volume: It includes monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton [40][41]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China: It shows the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [43][44]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: It includes monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [45][46]. - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [48][49]. - National Sales Progress: It shows the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the light - textile city [50][51]. - Cotton Inventory: It includes the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial cotton [53][54]. - Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: It shows the cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills [55][56]. 3.4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: It shows the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate, as well as the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [59][60][61]. - US Production and Planting Area: It shows the US cotton production forecast and planting area [62][64]. - US Export Contract Progress: It shows the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [66][67]. - US Export Shipment Volume: It shows the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [68][69]. - US Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: It shows the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio [70]. - Brazilian Production and Planting Area: It shows the Brazilian cotton planting area and production [71][72]. - Brazilian Export Volume: It shows the Brazilian cotton export volume [74][75]. - Brazilian Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: It shows the Brazilian cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio [77]. - Indian Production and Planting Area: It shows the Indian cotton planting area and production [79][80]. - Indian Consumption and Import - Export: It shows the Indian cotton consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [82][83][85].