Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Lead ore inventory remains basically flat, primary lead smelting operating rate declines marginally, lead scrap inventory drops slightly, secondary lead smelting operating rate continues to rise, and downstream battery manufacturers' operating rate increases marginally. China's lead ingot social inventory stays at a relatively low level, upstream factory inventory declines marginally, but the monthly spread of SHFE lead remains low. With the ebbing of non - ferrous metal sentiment and low positions in SHFE lead, lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% at 17,134 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 76,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S dropped 4.5 to 1,984.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 170,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [11] - Industry Data: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64% [11] 2. Primary Supply - Imports: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [15] - Domestic Production: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total lead concentrate output was 1.5319 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [17] - Total Supply: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total global lead ore output was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19] - Inventory and Processing Fees: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting Operating Rate and Output: The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total primary lead ingot output was 3.5145 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Weekly Output: At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's secondary lead output was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total secondary lead ingot output was 3.6084 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [31][33] - Imports and Total Supply: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - Battery Exports: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 5.0% year - on - year [43] - Inventory Days: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [45] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Total Lead Ingot Inventory: Not elaborated in a summarized way in the text, but relevant data is presented through various inventory charts - China's Monthly Lead Ingot Balance: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - Overseas Monthly Lead Ingot Balance: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 17,000 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton [71] - Overseas Structure: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton [74] - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [77] - Position and Funds: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead turned slightly net long, the net long position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80]
铅周报：有色情绪退潮，炼厂维持较高开工-20251213
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-13 13:07