白糖周报：短线延续弱势，建议观望-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term weakness in the sugar market is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is currently estimated that the sugar production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will change from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. With the continuous opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China, the overall view is bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, making it more difficult for the long - and short - side to compete, and the probability of a trending market is also lower. Therefore, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In the external market, the raw sugar price rebounded this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was reported at 15.1 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 1.89%. In terms of spreads, the raw sugar 3 - 5 spread was reported at 0.41 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous week; the London white sugar 3 - 5 spread was reported at $3.2 per ton, up $0.5 per ton from the previous week; the raw - white spread of the March contract was reported at $96 per ton, down $3 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar May contract was reported at 5,214 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.36%. The spot price in Guangxi was reported at 5,340 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis was reported at 51 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan per ton from the previous week; the 1 - 5 spread was reported at 106 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan per ton from the previous week; the out - of - quota spot import profit was reported at 518 yuan per ton, down 69 yuan per ton from the previous week [9] - Industry News: Analysis agency Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons. But in the 2026/27 crushing season, sugar production may decrease to 9.9 million tons due to the conversion of sugarcane to cassava. According to data from the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India (NFCSF), as of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, a year - on - year increase of 0.24 percentage points. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that in the week ending December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, compared with 53 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.5131 million tons, a 17.14% decrease from 1.826 million tons in the previous week [9] - Viewpoints and Strategies: As mentioned above, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [9] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread - related charts, including those for spot prices and basis (such as Guangxi Nanning first - grade white sugar price trend and basis between Guangxi Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar main - contract), spot - to - spot spreads (e.g., refined sugar basis and production - sales area spread), domestic futures spreads (e.g., Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread), internal - external spreads (e.g., out - of - quota spot and futures import profits), raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts show the spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][25] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - National Production: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [40] - Sugar Imports: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [43] - National Sales: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative production - sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [48] - National Industrial Inventory: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [51] 3.4. International Market Situation - Brazilian Central - South Production: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's Central - South region from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [56] - Indian Production: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [61] - Thai Production: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [64] - Brazilian Shipment Volume: The sugar inventory in Brazil's Central - South region from 2022 to 2025 and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 are presented through charts [67]