螺纹钢周报：地产严控增量，需求修复仍待观察-20251213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market this week was weak, and the prices of finished steel products showed a volatile trend. Fundamentally, the production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and inventory continued to decline, with an overall performance of being neutral to stable. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, the pressure on inventory reduction increased further, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in the factory warehouse this week. - Politically, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand, optimizing project implementation and bond management, and promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry will continue the main tone of "controlling increments and reducing inventory", and new construction is expected to remain weak. - Overall, terminal demand remains weak, the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent, and steel prices may fluctuate in the bottom range. As the winter storage season approaches, attention should be paid to winter storage policies. [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - Production Volume: This week, the total rebar production was 1.79 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. The cumulative production was 105.413 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. Long-process production was 1.51 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%. Short-process production was 280,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. [51] - Capacity Utilization: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87%, the same as the previous value, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53%, a decrease from the previous value of 54%. [54] - Hot Metal Production: The average daily hot metal production this week was 2.32 million tons, the same as the previous value. [59] - Regional Production: The rebar production in the northern region was 300,000 tons, down from the previous value of 350,000 tons, and in the southern region was 690,000 tons, down from the previous value of 710,000 tons. In the East China region, it was 800,000 tons, with Jiangsu at 320,000 tons, Shandong at 60,000 tons, and Anhui at 150,000 tons. Guangdong's production was 220,000 tons, and Guangxi's was 80,000 tons. [62][65][68] 3.2 Demand Side - Building Materials Trading Volume: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons, up from the previous week's 105,098 tons. The trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 19,200 tons, the same as last week. - Rebar Consumption: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.03 million tons, and in East China, it was 1 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China, it was 300,000 tons, in North China, it was 100,000 tons, in Central China, it was 120,000 tons, in Northeast China, it was 40,000 tons, and in Northwest China, it was 140,000 tons. - Cement Price: The price of cement P.O42.5 in Hangzhou was 475 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 435 yuan/ton. [71][79][86] 3.3 Import and Export - In October, the import of steel billets was 30,000 tons. [9] 3.4 Inventory - Total Inventory: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.39 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The factory warehouse inventory was 1.41 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The total inventory was 4.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. The inventory of steel billets in Tangshan was 1.16 million tons, the same as the previous value. - Regional Inventory: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 4.94 million tons, in East China was 2.57 million tons, in Hangzhou was 720,000 tons, and in Shanghai was 310,000 tons. In South China, it was 440,000 tons, in North China, it was 690,000 tons, in Central China, it was 300,000 tons, in Northwest China, it was 460,000 tons, in Southwest China, it was 420,000 tons, and in Northeast China, it was 350,000 tons. [89][91][94] 3.5 Profit - The cost of hot metal was 2,693 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was -24 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was -24 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit was 7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week. [9][39] 3.6 Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 111 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.5%. The 01 basis was 119 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the 10 basis was 101 yuan/ton. [10][20] 3.7 Spread - Rolled-Rebar Spread: The rolled-rebar spread in Beijing was 220 yuan/ton, up from last week's 180 yuan/ton. In Shanghai, it was 0 yuan/ton, up from last week's -20 yuan/ton. In Guangzhou, it was -230 yuan/ton, down from last week's -210 yuan/ton. - North-South Spread: The Shanghai-Beijing spread was 130 yuan/ton, up from last week's 90 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou-Shanghai spread was 122 yuan/ton, down from last week's 151 yuan/ton. - Spiral Premium: The spiral premium in Beijing was 210 yuan/ton, up from last week's 200 yuan/ton. In Shanghai, it was 180 yuan/ton, the same as last week. In Guangzhou, it was 190 yuan/ton, the same as last week. - Rebar-Billet Spread and Domestic-International Spread: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3,070 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar HRB400E Φ20 in Beijing was 3,140 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 447 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 960 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 610 US dollars/ton, and in the Middle East (UAE origin) was 655 US dollars/ton. - Rebar-Coke Ratio and Rebar-Iron Ore Ratio: The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 892 yuan/ton. [25][28][30][33][36] 3.8 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided. [12]