橡胶周报：橡胶：多单离场暂时观望-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for the bulls is the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low exchange inventory is also a factor. The main reasons for the bears are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The short - term demand for rubber is negatively affected by the postponement of EUDR, which leads to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The supply of raw materials is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, about 10 - 110,000 tons of rubber warehouse receipts are expected to be out of storage, significantly reducing the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. December is a season with high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - In mid - December, there was continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand, but the probability of floods was low. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia led to a relatively strong rubber price, but considering the overall decline of commodities, there is a risk of price catch - up decline. [10] - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia mainly affected the northeastern region of Thailand, with a 2024 natural rubber output of about 260,000 - 270,000 tons, accounting for about 5 - 6% of the country's total output. The escalation of the conflict led to the evacuation of border residents and the shutdown of rubber factories, causing a shortage of tapping and production workers, with a certain positive impact on supply. [10] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of full - latex in Hainan, China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of full - latex in Yunnan, China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is reduced. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated. [52] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to decline marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [26][30][33] 3.4. Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to black commodities, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special attention points. The similar movement rhythm of black and rubber products reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand. [41][44][48] 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 64.07% (0.57%), with normal demand for all - steel tires. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is currently booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [61][64] 3.6. Supply End - The rainy season in Thailand is coming to an end. There are still significant differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some believing in small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. [14] - In September 2025, the rubber output was 1.1416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative output was 8.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply, and the import of butadiene is also expected to be high, which will put downward pressure on the price of butadiene rubber. [18]