资金行为研究双周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/12）：杠杆资金多头力量抬升-20251213

Market Fund Flow Overview - Institutional funds have shown a net outflow from major indices, while retail funds have stabilized after a brief outflow, indicating a shift towards net inflow [3][10] - The net inflow rate difference between retail and institutional funds for the ChiNext index fell into negative territory from December 4 to 8, suggesting stronger institutional support for the index during this period [3][10] Market Capitalization and Valuation Style - Institutional funds are accelerating their outflow from high valuation indices and the CSI 300, reflecting a profit-taking tendency, while retail funds continue to flow into high valuation and large-cap styles [3][22] - The net inflow rate difference between retail and institutional funds has narrowed significantly after December 11, indicating a potential increase in institutional support for small-cap stocks [3][22] Major Industry Style - Both institutional and retail funds have consistently flowed into the consumer sector, while there is a divergence in the technology and cyclical manufacturing sectors [4][27] - Institutional outflows from the technology sector have increased again after a brief slowdown, while outflows from the cyclical sector have shown a converging trend [4][27] Primary Industry Fund Flow - In the upstream resources sector, there is a strong consensus on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, with institutional outflows from non-ferrous metals no longer significantly increasing [5][40] - The midstream materials and manufacturing sector has seen high trading activity in electrical equipment, while the downstream essential consumption sector has seen increased institutional investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [5][40] Leverage Fund Situation - The margin trading balance remains high at approximately 2.51 trillion yuan, with the average collateral ratio slightly fluctuating [5][77] - The trading activity of margin financing has stabilized, with the trading volume accounting for 9.89% of total market transactions, indicating sustained market risk appetite [5][79] - The net buying amount of margin trading in the electronics sector has significantly increased, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment [5][84]