聚酯周报：乙二醇利润持续压缩，减产量上升-20251213

Report Title - Polyester Weekly Report (2025/12/13) [1] Report Core Viewpoints - PX: Currently at a neutral valuation level, with expectations of slight inventory accumulation in December. Consider opportunistic long positions on dips [11]. - PTA: In the short - term, it is in a de - stocking phase, but the upside is limited. As the approach to January nears, processing fees may face pressure. Look for opportunistic long positions based on expectations [12]. - MEG: The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. Be wary of potential price rebounds due to increased unexpected maintenance [13]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: Price showed a weakening trend last week, with a decline in futures and spot prices. Supply side: China's load decreased, and overseas plants had some adjustments. Demand side: PTA load remained flat. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in December. Valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities on dips [11]. - PTA: Prices also weakened last week. Supply side: Load remained unchanged, and maintenance volume stayed at a high level. Demand side: Polyester load declined slightly. Inventory is expected to continue decreasing. Processing fees are expected to face pressure later, and consider long - entry opportunities based on expectations [12]. - MEG: Prices dropped significantly last week. Supply side: Load decreased, and unexpected maintenance increased. Demand side: Polyester load declined. Inventory is expected to continue accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and be cautious of price rebounds caused by increased maintenance [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads strengthened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [31][34]. - PTA: Basis and 1 - 5 spreads showed certain changes. Trading volume and open interest data are provided [43][45]. - MEG: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are available [55][62]. 3. PX Fundamentals - Supply: Capacity has increased in some years, and the current load is at a high level [76][79]. - Import: Import volume decreased slightly in October [83]. - Inventory: Slight inventory accumulation in October [85]. - Cost - profit: PXN decreased slightly, short - process spreads widened, and naphtha spreads were strong. Aromatic - blending oil data showed a weakening trend [89][96]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - Supply: New production capacity has been added in recent years, and the current load is relatively low. Export data is also presented [132][135]. - Inventory: End - of - period inventory and other inventory - related data are provided [139]. - Profit - valuation: Processing fees are at a low level [141]. 5. MEG Fundamentals - Supply: New production capacity has been added, and the current load has decreased. Import data from different regions is shown [145][148]. - Inventory: Port inventory has been accumulating, and both upstream and downstream factory inventories are relatively high [157]. - Cost: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices stopped falling and rebounded, and US ethane prices weakened [168]. - Profit: Naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 6. Polyester and End - users - Polyester: New production capacity has been put into operation. Basis: Staple fiber basis is strong, and bottle - chip basis fluctuates. Supply: Operating rate started to decline. Inventory: Filament inventory is at a low level. Profit: Filament profit weakened [185][188][191]. - End - users: Operating rate decreased and is lower compared to the same period last year. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw - material inventory decreased. Spinning and clothing domestic demand growth recovered, while exports were weak [212][219][223].