铂族金属周报：宏观因素驱动铂族金属价格走强-20251213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The dovish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week drove the overall strong performance of the precious metals sector, leading to an increase in the prices of platinum - group metals. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on December 10, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75% and restarting balance - sheet expansion. The monthly bond - buying scale of $40 billion exceeded market expectations. The prices of precious metals were extremely strong, driving up the prices of platinum - group metals. This week, the NYMEX platinum price rose 3.55% to $1713.9 per ounce, and the NYMEX palladium price rose 2.53% to $1540 per ounce [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve has officially entered a dual - easing cycle of interest rates and the balance sheet. The macro - level easing combined with the tightening of the physical market will drive the prices of platinum - group metals to perform strongly. It is still recommended to conduct dip - buying operations. However, the capital capacity that platinum and palladium can accommodate is relatively limited, and their price trends mostly follow the rise of gold and silver. Therefore, when the precious metals sector is significantly weakened by potential negative factors, it is necessary to take profit on platinum and palladium long positions in a timely manner [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - Platinum Key Data: The closing price of the active contract was $1713.9 per ounce, with a 3.55% weekly increase; the five - day average trading volume was 32,339 lots, up 3.21%; the open interest of the main contract was 57,773 lots, down 6.60%; the inventory was 19,115.01 kg, down 0.11%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds was 15,563 lots, an increase of 1,553 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial was 24,937 lots, an increase of 49 lots; the platinum ETF holdings were 75,878.92 kg, up 0.73% [8][9]. - Palladium Key Data: The closing price of the active contract was $1540 per ounce, with a 2.53% weekly increase; the five - day average trading volume was 5,575.5 lots, up 4.31%; the open interest of the main contract was 19,923 lots, up 3.27%; the inventory was 5,885.71 kg, up 7.09%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds was - 803 lots, an increase of 258 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial was 3,292 lots, an increase of 85 lots; the palladium ETF holdings were 14,801.97 kg, up 0.36% [8][9]. - Technical Analysis: The price of the NYMEX platinum main contract was strongly supported near the trend line and continued to rise under the drive of the Federal Reserve's easing expectations. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance level at $1918 per ounce. The NYMEX palladium main contract rose significantly after hitting the trend line, was suppressed at the $1700 per ounce level, and then was supported on the weekly - level trend line after the price decline. Its price performance was weaker than that of platinum, and short - term attention should be paid to the resistance level at $1638 per ounce [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - Platinum Price: This week, the NYMEX platinum price rose 3.55% to $1713.9 per ounce. Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the update of CFTC total open interest was currently lagging. As of December 12, the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 445.54 yuan per gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the domestic platinum premium significantly rebounded [21][25]. - Palladium Price: This week, the NYMEX palladium price rose 2.53% to $1540 per ounce. Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the update of CFTC total open interest was currently lagging [22]. - Lease Rate: The one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 14.91%, and that of palladium was 6.91%, both at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [29]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum ETF Holdings: As of December 4, the total platinum ETF holdings were 75.32 tons [48]. - Palladium ETF Holdings: As of December 4, the total palladium ETF holdings were 14.8 tons [51]. - Platinum Inventory: The U.S. platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 11, the CME platinum inventory was 19.12 tons [55]. - Palladium Inventory: The CME palladium inventory was 5.89 tons as of December 11 [60]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The forecast of platinum production from the top 15 mines globally shows that the platinum production of the top 15 mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons. The annual production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 129.95 tons in 2024, indicating a certain contraction expectation in the platinum mining supply this year [65][66]. - Palladium Supply: The production data of the top 15 palladium mines globally shows that the total production of the top 15 palladium mines in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the palladium production of two mines of Norilsk Nickel and the Stillwater Mine in the United States will decrease by 1%, but the palladium production of Impala in South Africa will increase by 12%. Overall, the annual palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons [68][69]. - China's Platinum Imports: China's platinum imports in October were 10.23 tons, showing a decline compared to September [72]. - China's Palladium Imports: China's palladium imports in October were 3.09 tons, showing a significant decline compared to September [75]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: The report presents the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum [97][92]. - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: The report presents the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium [104][100]. - London Market Spot and NYMEX Spread: The report shows the spreads between the London market spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as between the London market spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price [106].