每周高频跟踪 20251213：预期平稳，等待地产年末行情-20251213

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Stable Expectations, Awaiting the Year - End Real Estate Market - Weekly High - Frequency Tracking 20251213" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the second week of December, the market was mainly affected by the off - season supply - demand fundamentals, with most industrial product prices falling and downstream demand release being moderately weak. Food prices continued to rise, and the decline in pork prices narrowed. Container shipping prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the year - end contract - signing season. Cement prices rose due to cost support and manufacturers' initiatives, but the demand support for price increases was limited. The apparent demand for building materials and rebar continued to decline. The new and second - hand housing markets in the real estate sector continued to weaken, and attention should be paid to the year - end sprint market [4][37]. - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone that the macro - policy intensity in 2026 may be basically stable, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which meets market expectations. However, the conference also paid high attention to price recovery, which may cause some disturbances to the downward shift of the nominal interest rate center. Looking ahead, the November economic data will be released next week. From the PMI performance, it is expected that the production side will recover to some extent, but investment and consumption still face high bases, and domestic demand may still be lower than exports, similar to the situation in October. Looking forward to 2026, the conference clearly required investment to "stop falling and stabilize", fiscal policy may be front - loaded, and policies may be somewhat tilted towards investment. During the data vacuum period from January to February, attention can be focused on the high - frequency performance of physical work volume [4][37]. Summary of Each Section 1. Inflation - related - Food prices continued to rise. From December 8th to 12th, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the vegetable price increased by 0.7% week - on - week, with the growth momentum narrowing. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.0% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively, with the upward trend slowing down [10]. 2. Import and Export - related - The CCFI and SCFI indices stopped falling and rebounded. The CCFI index increased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the SCFI increased by 7.8% week - on - week. The overall transportation demand was stable this week, and the spot freight rates of some major ocean routes increased due to the year - end contract - signing season. The North American route was affected by the year - end market freight rate increase, but the demand did not improve significantly. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the Western and Eastern United States increased by 14.8% and 14.6% week - on - week respectively [12]. - From December 1st to 7th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 1.8% and 7.3% week - on - week respectively, both lower than the previous week. - The BDI and CDFI indices corrected. The international dry - bulk shipping market cooled down, the daily charter rates of large and medium - sized ships dropped significantly, and the Far - East dry - bulk charter rate index continued to decline from its high level. The quarterly volume - rushing of major miners was coming to an end, and the market trading activity decreased [12]. 3. Industry - related - The decline in coal prices continued to widen. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 4.5% week - on - week. Affected by warm weather, the demand for heating electricity in coastal areas increased, but the stable supply of long - term contract coal kept the power plant inventory stable. During the peak winter period, temporary navigation closures led to blocked circulation, a significant increase in the volume of goods gathered at the port, and the rising inventory suppressed coal prices [19]. - The price of rebar decreased slightly. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.9% week - on - week. The inventory of major steel products decreased by 3.71% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week. The destocking pace was basically the same as last week and remained relatively fast. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.8% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.5% week - on - week, accelerating the weakening in the off - season [19]. - The asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. This week, the asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%, indicating a marginal weakening of infrastructure demand [19]. - Copper prices continued to rise. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.9% and 2.7% week - on - week respectively. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market expected further easing next year, with the weakening US dollar supporting price increases. It is the domestic consumption off - season, spot transactions were basically stable, and downstream buyers were more cautious about high prices, with limited incremental replenishment demand [20]. - The decline in glass prices widened. The spot market trading was okay, with some areas continuing to destock and a few slightly increasing inventory. Market sentiment weakened compared with the previous week, most downstream enterprises made rigid - demand purchases, the whole market continued to destock, but there was still overall shipment pressure [20]. 4. Investment - related - The increase in cement prices slightly expanded. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week. As the weather turned cold, demand contracted. Price increases in North China were not fully implemented. Construction in Northeast China stopped. Driven by costs, prices in East China and other regions continued to rise, with the overall price tending to stabilize and slightly increase. In Central South China, demand was weak, and prices rebounded after multiple price - pushing attempts [21][25]. - The decline in the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities widened. From December 5th to 11th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 196.5 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 33%. Attention should be paid to the year - end sprint effect in the middle and late December [29]. - The transaction volume of second - hand houses decreased slightly and steadily. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 0.7% week - on - week, with a narrowing decline. It was better than the seasonal performance in 2023 - 2024, and the year - on - year decrease for the single week was 33%, mainly due to the high base last year [29]. 5. Consumption - related - In the first week of December, passenger car retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year and continued to weaken month - on - month. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the national passenger car market retail sales were 297,000 vehicles, a 32% decrease compared with the same period last December and an 8% decrease compared with the same period last month. The demand for trade - in accelerated release in December last year, resulting in a high base, and the subsidy intensity in some areas decreased, leading to the low year - on - year retail sales at the beginning of December [31]. - Crude oil prices weakened. As of December 12th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 4.1% and 4.4% week - on - week respectively, turning from rising to falling. The main reason was that the market expected an increase in crude oil supply from non - OPEC+ countries next year, causing total crude oil supply to exceed demand [31].