Group 1 - The macro environment for the A-share market has reverted since late November, but the upward space remains limited, with concerns about the capital expenditure decline of leading US tech companies in 2026 and pressure on the AI industry chain [4][5][6] - The central economic work conference in 2025 emphasizes internal strengthening to cope with external challenges, indicating limited short-term expectations for the A-share market [6][9] - The report highlights six key policy points from the conference, including addressing development and transformation issues, enhancing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, focusing on technological innovation, promoting a unified market, and prioritizing employment and green transformation [9][10] Group 2 - The mid-term judgment remains a "two-phase bull market," with the first phase (tech structural bull) at a high level and currently in a high-level oscillation phase, while the second phase is expected in the second half of 2026 [10][11] - The style rhythm for 2026 indicates that cyclical and value styles will dominate in the first half, with potential early signs of a bull market in tech and advanced manufacturing [10][11] - The spring market is expected to be a small-scale market, with opportunities in commercial aerospace and robotics, while the price increase cycle based on supply-side logic is anticipated to provide good elasticity [11]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/08-25/12/13) ：宏观环境“还原”，A 股向上空间受限未变
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-13 14:39