2026年利率债年度投资策略：稳握票息，静待波澜

Group 1: Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in 2026, with investors adopting a cautious approach to market changes, focusing on "earning income from coupons" due to limited capital gain opportunities [5][18] - The core fluctuation range for 10-year government bonds is projected to be around OMO + 30-50 basis points, with potential extreme fluctuations of ±5 basis points [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of coupon income in a volatile market, suggesting early allocation to capture time value and actively seeking optimal coupon opportunities during adjustments [3][7] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5%, with a focus on balancing internal and external dynamics, including the importance of exports and domestic demand supported by policy measures [5][6] - The report highlights a potential recovery in industrial value added and consumer prices, with nominal GDP growth expected to be around 4.8% for the year [5][6] - Structural changes in the economy are anticipated, with a focus on the resilience of exports and the gradual recovery of fixed asset investments [6][10] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy framework is entering a stable phase, with a focus on "cross-cycle and counter-cyclical" adjustments, and the likelihood of a limited interest rate cut in 2026 [5][6] - The report outlines that the central bank may implement one interest rate cut of 10 basis points in a neutral scenario, with the possibility of no cuts occurring [5][6] - The use of various monetary tools is expected to be refined, with a focus on managing liquidity and maintaining a stable environment [6][10] Group 4: Institutional Behavior - The report anticipates a continuation of "asset scarcity" in the bond market, with an increase in the supply of government bonds, while demand from institutional investors remains stable [5][6] - Banks and insurance companies are expected to maintain high levels of bond allocation, while the growth of bank wealth management products may slow down due to market uncertainties [5][6] - The demand structure is characterized by a predominance of allocation-type institutions, with trading-type institutions facing increased uncertainty [6][10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report suggests three operational methods for navigating a fluctuating market: focusing on coupon income, adhering to trading discipline, and monitoring sector rotations [3][7][9] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of selecting trading opportunities based on market conditions, particularly for 10-year bonds, while also considering the potential for long-term bonds to return to alpha strategies [3][9] - The report highlights the effectiveness of rotating between active and inactive bonds, as well as credit bonds, to enhance portfolio returns [9][10]