事件点评：中央经济工作会议学习

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key policy goal in 2026 is likely price recovery, similar to the situation in 2016 when the importance of GDP growth rate decreased and price recovery was crucial [3][4]. - In 2026, there are two possibilities for the real - estate market. One is a market - based bottoming of housing prices after they fall back to near 2015 levels, and the other is a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. - In 2026, price recovery is highly likely. Depending on the housing price situation, there are three scenarios for the market, all involving rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Goals - Price recovery is likely an important policy goal in 2026, as indicated by multiple mentions of price - related content in the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference addressed issues such as supply - demand imbalance, expansion of domestic demand, fiscal and monetary policies, competition regulation, and environmental protection [3]. - The logic in 2026 may be similar to that in 2016, with a decline in the importance of GDP growth rate and price recovery being the key. In 2016, the actual GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to 2015, while the nominal GDP growth rate increased by over 1%, and price recovery improved corporate profits and the stock market [4]. Policy Measures - The policy focus has shifted from reversing the downward price trend (2022 - 2024.9) to maintaining price stability (2025.12). The policy emphasizes maintaining overall policy intensity and making decisions based on the situation to hedge against downward pressure [5]. - Specific measures include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, debt, and spending; using new policy - based financial tools; and the option of flexible use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, which are not mandatory and depend on external shocks [5]. Real - Estate - The government's approach to real - estate risk has two stages: moral risk and systemic risk. Currently, the policy is at the moral risk stage, but may shift if housing prices continue to fall [6]. - In 2026, there are two possible scenarios for the real - estate market: a market - based bottoming of housing prices after falling back to near 2015 levels, or a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. Key Variables in 2026 - There is a high probability of price recovery in 2026, which will lead to three market scenarios: price recovery with falling housing prices, price recovery with market - based bottoming of housing prices, and price recovery with policy - based bottoming of housing prices, all resulting in rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7].