转债周度跟踪 20251212：机构普遍欠配，转债韧性较强-20251213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets remained in a volatile trend. Micro - cap stocks in major stock indices declined significantly, but the convertible bond market showed relative insensitivity. The negative impact of micro - cap stock declines on convertible bonds was less than that in late August and late November. The valuation of convertible bonds fluctuated in tandem with the market. The 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuated around 30%. Structurally, the valuation of the equity - biased area was better than that of the debt - biased area. Despite multiple negative factors, the convertible bond market showed unexpected resilience, likely due to the under - allocation pressure of institutional investors and the consistent expectation of the "Spring Rally" next year. The convertible bond market is expected to have upside potential [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets continued to fluctuate. Micro - cap stocks fell sharply, but convertible bonds were less affected. The convertible bond valuation oscillated, with the 100 - yuan premium rate around 30%. The equity - biased area's valuation was better, and the convertible bond market showed resilience, with potential upside due to institutional under - allocation and "Spring Rally" expectations [4][5]. 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks declined slightly, and the convertible bond market was roughly flat with volatile valuations. After excluding outliers, the market - wide convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 29.8%, down 0.1% week - on - week, and at the 99.1% percentile since 2017. The equity - biased area's valuation was better than the debt - biased area. The high - parity area's valuation showed resilience. The debt - biased area's valuation was weak but showed structural differentiation. The median convertible bond price was 130.90 yuan, down 0.71 yuan, and the yield to maturity was - 6.56%, unchanged, at the 97.30% and 1.40% percentiles since 2017 respectively [4][6][13]. 3. Clause Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Hugong and Yingbo Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, while Bojun Convertible Bond announced no redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 67%. There are currently 20 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 22 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 6 are expected to meet redemption conditions next week, 10 are expected to issue potential redemption announcements, and 9 are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][18][20]. 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Bengang, Jinlangzhuan 02, and Hongchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 29 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 5 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not gone to the shareholders' meeting [4][23]. 3.3 Put Option - This week, Wanqing Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement, and Huahai Convertible Bond has triggered the put - option clause but has not announced. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, 1 of which proposed a downward revision, and 3 are in the non - downward - revision period [4][25]. 4. Primary Issuance - This week, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds were issued, and Dingjie Convertible Bond will be issued next week. As of now, Puxian, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds have been issued but not listed. There are 5 convertible bonds at the registration - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.1 billion yuan, and 9 at the listing - committee - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 10 billion yuan [4][27].