国信期货甲醇周报：15价差迅速收敛，甲醇主力移仓换月-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is currently experiencing significant changes. The main contract is shifting, the basis is strengthening, and the 15 - spread is rapidly converging. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in spot and futures prices, as well as in different regions. In the future, the coastal methanol market is expected to maintain a box - shock trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends: The main methanol contract MA2601 closed at 2067 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.4% and a reduction of 390,000 lots in positions, leaving 480,000 lots in position. The second - main contract MA2605 closed at 2099 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.2%, an increase of 60,000 lots in positions, and 830,000 lots in position and 750,000 lots in trading volume. The port basis continued to strengthen, and the 15 - spread also converged rapidly [6]. - Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Production - Sales Area Spreads: The coastal methanol market declined weakly this week, while the inland market fluctuated narrowly. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2086 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline from the previous week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1984 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous week. Due to the expected climate in the north, freight rates increased, and producers in production areas sold at discounted prices, while some downstream enterprises in sales areas still had the enthusiasm to replenish stocks, and the freight rate increase supported a narrow increase in the transaction price [8]. - Methanol Foreign Market Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads: For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 236 - 244 US dollars/ton, and that for Iranian methanol shipments is - 1 - 0.5%. The cost in US dollars has increased, and buyers are relatively cautious. The methanol markets in Europe and the United States are operating weakly, with the reference price in Europe at 257 euros/ton and that in the United States at 89 - 90 cents/gallon [10]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Methanol Operating Rate: As of December 11, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 76.64%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.53%, a 1.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 0.97 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating loads in the northwest and north China increased this week, leading to a slight increase in the national methanol operating load [14]. - Methanol Import and Export Volume: The import arbitrage window is closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remains open [15]. - Methanol Port Inventory: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [21]. - Crude Oil and Natural Gas: The international natural gas price has corrected from a high level, and the import cost of natural gas - to - methanol has dropped to 1880 yuan/ton. The price of the domestic thermal coal market continued to decline this week. Most mainstream coal mines in production areas maintained stable production, but downstream demand was not ideal. Power plants mainly replenished stocks through long - term contracts, and pit - mouth prices mostly continued to decline [22][26]. - Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream industries was 77.6%, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries was 54.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week [28]. - Methanol Downstream - MTO: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [38]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Affected by the port policy on the age of imported methanol vessels this week, there was congestion at the port, delaying the actual unloading progress of imported vessels. At the same time, the rigid demand for提货 was stable, and the number of re - export vessels in Taicang increased. The coastal methanol inventory continued to decline significantly, and the decline in spot and near - month contracts was slightly narrower. However, coastal MTO plants have entered maintenance, and imported vessels and floating storage still need to be unloaded and stored in the warehouse one after another. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the coastal methanol market in the later stage, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the coastal methanol market will maintain a box - shock trend next week [41].