国信期货焦煤焦炭周报：真实需求走弱，煤焦承压运行-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The real demand for coking coal and coke is weakening, and coal and coke are under pressure. The supply side has some production limitations, while the import supply of coking coal is loose. The demand side shows a decline in the operating rates of coking enterprises and steel mills, with insufficient inventory - building momentum and weak real demand, so a bearish approach is recommended for operation [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Double - Coking Market Review - No specific review content provided in the given text. 2. Macro and Policy 2.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic Data: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued reduction of major raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in delivery time. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 87.6%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate was 12.4% [13]. - Policy Information: In November, the NDRC held a meeting to study the formulation of cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [13]. 3. Fundamental Situation of Coking Coal 3.1 Coking Coal Production - In October, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to September. From January to October, the output was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. As of December 12, the operating rate of 523 sample coal mines was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% [17]. 3.2 Coking Coal Import - In October, China's total coking coal imports were 1.05932 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. From January to October 2025, imports were 9.8869 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.12%. In the fourth quarter, Mongolia is expected to increase coal exports, while imports from Russia, the US, and Australia may change in different directions, and the total imports may slightly decrease [22]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 225,310 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8300 tons. The coking coal inventory of major ports was 307,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons [26]. - Coking Enterprise Inventory: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of sample coking enterprises was 883,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,900 tons [30]. - Steel Mill Inventory: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 794,650 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3620 tons. Steel mills mainly purchased raw materials as needed due to blast furnace production cuts [34]. 4. Fundamental Situation of Coke 4.1 Coke Supply - From January to October, the national coke output was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In October, the output was 41.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% [39]. 4.2 Coking Enterprise Operation - As of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of 230 sample independent coking enterprises was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Although coking enterprises had good profits, the production cuts of downstream steel mills led to a weakening demand for raw materials, resulting in a slight week - on - week decline in the operating rate [43]. 4.3 Inventory - Coking Enterprise Inventory: As of December 12, the total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5420 tons. The real demand of downstream was weak, and the inventory of coking enterprises accumulated, with weak market bargaining power [47]. - Port Inventory: The total coke inventory of major ports was 181,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, basically unchanged [51]. - Steel Mill Inventory: As of the end of this week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons. Steel mills mainly purchased as needed, and the in - plant raw material inventory increased slightly [55]. 4.4 Coke Demand - From January to October, the national pig iron output was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. In October, the output was 65.55 million tons, the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 7.9% and 0.8% respectively. From January to October, the national crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In October, the output was 72 million tons, also the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 12.1% and 2.0% respectively. As of the end of this week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 229,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3100 tons, and the real demand for furnace materials was under pressure [59]. 5. Double - Coking Market Outlook - On the supply side, the overall production in the main production areas is normal, but some coal mines have production limitations. This week, the local supply decreased again. The import supply of coking coal is loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of coking enterprises and steel mills decreased simultaneously, and the real demand is weak. The coke inventory of coking enterprises accumulated, and the near - month futures market is under pressure. A bearish approach is recommended for operation [63].