国信期货热卷周报：负反馈压制，热卷延续下行-20251214

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main hot - rolled coil contract fluctuated downward, and the driving force remained downward. The supply of hot - rolled coils dropped from a high level, the steel plate profit fluctuated weakly, the terminal demand was weak, and steel mills started a production - reduction cycle. With steel mills reducing production, steel profits strengthened slightly, but the decline in raw material prices led to a decrease in hot - rolled coil costs, entering a negative feedback trend. The operation strategy is to participate in short - term short positions [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot - rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the main hot - rolled coil contract had short - term fluctuations and continued to decline [8]. 1.2 Hot - rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot price showed a weak fluctuation [11]. 2.1 Hot - rolled Coil Futures - Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis was 7, the 05 basis was - 9, and the 10 basis was 2 [14]. 2.2 Cold - Hot Price Difference - Not provided in the detailed content 3.1 Hot - rolled Coil Profit - The production profit was 57, the 01 plate profit was 268, the 05 plate profit was 211, and the 10 plate profit was 220 [23]. 3.2 Hot - rolled Coil Output - The hot - rolled coil output was 308.71, the cold - rolled output was 86.31, the rebar output was 178.78, and the output of the five major steel products was 806.22 [26]. 3.3 Raw Materials - Not provided in the detailed content 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil Inventory - The hot - rolled coil inventory was 397.09, the cold - rolled coil inventory was 164.29, the rebar inventory was 479.5, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1332.09 [32]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - Not provided in the detailed content 3.6 Export - Exports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level [37]. 4. Future Outlook - The main hot - rolled coil contract fluctuated downward this week with a downward driving force. Supply dropped from a high, steel plate profits fluctuated weakly, terminal demand was weak, and steel mills started a production - reduction cycle. Steel profits strengthened slightly with production reduction, but raw material price drops led to cost reduction, resulting in a negative feedback trend. The strategy is short - term short - side participation [39].