Soochow Securities·2025-12-14 04:35Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a new growth cycle for energy storage, projecting significant increases in installed capacity and demand in both domestic and international markets [2][5][32] - Domestic energy storage demand is driven by capacity pricing and innovative business models, with a projected installed capacity of 163 GWh in 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, and 265 GWh in 2026, a 60% increase [2][32] - Internationally, the U.S. is experiencing a surge in demand due to AI data centers, while Europe and emerging markets are also showing strong growth potential [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, the introduction of capacity pricing subsidies by local governments has significantly boosted the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects, with IRR rates ranging from 6% to 12% [2][13] - The report notes that from January to November 2025, domestic energy storage bidding reached 190 GWh, a 138% increase year-on-year, with a total of 175 GWh awarded [2][27] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic energy storage reached 72 GWh from January to October 2025, marking a 42% increase year-on-year [2][27] Group 3: International Market Trends - The U.S. is expected to see a demand for approximately 53 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2025, driven by AI data centers and peak load shortages [2][34] - In Europe, the energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected installation of 20 GWh in 2025, a 131% increase year-on-year, and 42 GWh in 2026, a 109% increase [2][34] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, and South America, are anticipated to contribute to a combined installation of 34 GWh in 2025, a 220% increase year-on-year [2][34] Group 4: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The global demand for energy storage batteries is projected to reach 628 GWh in 2025, a 91% increase, and 663 GWh in 2026, a 61% increase [2][6] - The report indicates that leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Tesla and BYD, are expected to strengthen their market positions as battery prices stabilize and production capacity increases [2][6] - The integration of large battery cells is expected to reduce system costs by 10-15%, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [2][6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strong investment in large-scale energy storage companies, including Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and BYD, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the market [2][6] - It also highlights the potential for growth in residential and commercial energy storage sectors, suggesting companies like DeYe and Airo Energy as promising investment opportunities [2][6]