Western Securities·2025-12-14 05:15Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies and demand growth [1][15]. Core Views - The 2026 economic policy will focus on proactive macroeconomic measures to enhance demand and optimize supply, which is expected to positively impact the non-ferrous metals sector [1][15]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and resumption of balance sheet expansion are anticipated to support metal prices and market stability [2][16]. - The commissioning of Zijin Mining's lithium polymetallic project in Hunan is a significant development, highlighting growth opportunities in the lithium sector [3][17]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau has set a proactive policy tone for 2026, emphasizing the need to address structural economic issues and stimulate new growth drivers [1][15]. - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, with indications of potential further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [2][16]. Industry Developments - Zijin Mining's lithium polymetallic mining project in Hunan has commenced operations, with a total ore reserve of approximately 196 million tons and a lithium oxide output of 670,000 tons [3][17]. - The consumer price index (CPI) in China rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, the highest since March 2024, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [4][18]. Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - LME copper prices decreased by 0.96% to $11,553 per ton, while SHFE copper prices increased by 1.40% to ¥94,080 per ton [20][22]. - LME aluminum prices fell by 0.88% to $2,875 per ton, with SHFE prices down by 0.78% to ¥22,170 per ton [20][22]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.31% to $3,139 per ton, while SHFE zinc prices rose by 1.29% to ¥23,605 per ton [21][22]. Strategic and Rare Metals - The report highlights investment opportunities in the rare earth sector, particularly with recent export licenses granted to leading magnetic material companies [46][57]. - The price of tungsten has seen a significant increase, while antimony prices have started to recover after a prolonged decline [46][52].