轻工制造：美国降息关注出口链，12月外盘浆价提涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December is expected to improve demand in the U.S. real estate sector, which could positively impact related export-oriented companies [3][7]. - The price of hardwood and softwood pulp has increased by $20 per ton, with softwood pulp priced at $700 per ton and hardwood pulp at $570 per ton, providing cost support for the pulp industry [3][7]. - The actual controller of Oppein Home announced a plan to increase shareholding by investing between 50 million to 100 million yuan, highlighting the company's strong cash position and potential for dividend support [3][7]. Summary by Sections Export Chain - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut aligns with market expectations, and further cuts are anticipated next year, which may lead to improved orders for export-oriented companies [7]. - Home Depot's cautious sales guidance for the upcoming year reflects consumer hesitance in making large purchases due to high-interest rates, but growth in home renovation is expected as housing market pressures ease [7]. - Shipping costs have shown slight increases, with the CCFI and SCFI indices rising by 0.3% and 7.8% respectively [7]. Home Furnishing - Oppein Home's major shareholder has initiated a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in the company's financial health and potential for future growth [7]. - The home furnishing sector is still in an adjustment phase, but valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [7]. Paper Industry - As of December 12, 2025, prices for various paper products have shown mixed trends, with white cardboard prices increasing by 20 yuan per ton, while double glue paper and copper plate paper prices have decreased [7][49]. - The pulp price increases are expected to support cost structures in the paper industry, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [3][7]. Packaging - The packaging sector is experiencing changes in control among companies, with potential impacts on stock performance [7]. - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and stable operations in the packaging sector [7]. Light Industry Consumption - E-commerce sales for personal care products have shown positive growth, with specific brands outperforming the market [7]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies involved in oral care and medical products, as well as those expanding their product lines [7]. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco anticipates growth in its new tobacco segment, driven by the Velo brand, while facing challenges in the HNB segment due to increased competition [11]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International for their diverse product offerings in the new tobacco market [11]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown a decline in exports, with specific categories experiencing varying performance [25][31]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are adapting to changing consumer demands in the apparel market [25].