BZ、Eb周报：维持底部区间震荡-20251214

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate, with weak current situation and strong expectations, and will remain within the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. The overseas gasoline blending logic hyped in the early stage has gradually subsided. The pure benzene market in December has obvious inventory swelling pressure, while the market has strong expectations of supply contraction after January 2026. The import expectation has large differences in the market. The demand for pure benzene downstream is weak in December and may improve after January. The overall situation of benzene - ethylene downstream 3S is high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit. The benzene - ethylene market will maintain a range - bound pattern [3][89] - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of 60 US dollars. The EB processing fee will expand in the short term [3][89] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production capacity after solving the quota problem. Pay attention to the new production increment of BASF Zhanjiang in January [3][89] - Pure benzene imports: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene from November to December is large, with high imports. There are large differences in the import volume in January, which is expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons, and the imports after February need further evaluation [3][89] Demand - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. The plant operation will gradually resume after December. Pay attention to the production increment brought by the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [3][89] - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their load. It is expected that 40,000 tons of production will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January. Focus on the commissioning of Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [3][89] - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. 30,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [3][89] - Aniline: 70,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December, with a loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][89] - Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics: The terminal home appliance market is entering the end - of - year procurement season, and the demand has slightly improved, but 3S still faces the problem of high inventory [3][89] Strategy - Single - side trading: Mainly range - bound trading [3][89] - Inter - period trading: No trading strategy for now [3][89] - Inter - commodity trading: Continue to hold the PX - BZ position [3][89]