铅产业链周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by an increase in recycled lead production and cautious demand, with prices expected to remain volatile. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,900 - 17,400 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3][4]. - On the supply side, primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance, and the spot import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate remains low. Recycled lead production is also expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance [4]. - On the consumption side, large lead - acid battery enterprises are increasing production to meet year - end targets, but the market sentiment has become cautious due to the anti - dumping tax on Chinese automotive starting lead - acid batteries by an overseas cooperation committee. The domestic lead inventory in five regions has decreased on a weekly basis, and the current absolute inventory level is at a historically low level for the same period [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to operate within the range as lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and new long - position entrants should be cautious and pay attention to the profit changes of recycled lead. For the spread strategy, as domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price and Spread: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the night - session closing price was 17,035 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The LME lead 3 - month contract was at 1,983.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.27%. The LME lead spread, bonded area lead premium, and Shanghai 1 lead spot spread remained relatively stable. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead increased from - 50 to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 29,694 lots, a decrease of 14,814 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 33,768 lots, a decrease of 11,176 lots. The trading volume of the LME S - lead 3 contract was 6,134 lots, a decrease of 512 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 616 to 16,694 lots, the SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,508 to 32,227 lots, and the social inventory decreased by 3,100 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 8,800 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 2.44% to 46.52% [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, consumption, and production of lead concentrate have shown certain trends over the years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, as well as the import and domestic treatment charges (TC), have also changed. The lead concentrate operating rate has fluctuated [30][31]. - Primary and Recycled Lead: Primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance. Recycled lead production is expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance. The production and operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and their combined production have shown different trends over time [4][34][35]. - Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead have all changed over time. The net import of refined lead, import and export volume of lead ingots, and import profit and loss have also shown corresponding trends [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand - Lead - Acid Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the finished product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries have all changed over time [47]. - End - Use Consumption: The actual consumption of lead, as well as the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles, have shown different trends over the years [49].