铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at high levels. The shortage of scrap aluminum supply persists, providing some support for prices, but the weakening demand limits further price increases. In the short term, prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation range [6]. - From the micro - fundamental perspective, as of December 14, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.07 million tons to 13.12 million tons compared to the previous week, with high - level visible inventory. The automotive market demand is under pressure, with the retail volume of the national passenger car market from December 1 - 7 showing a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 8% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation data are presented graphically, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The calculation of the inter - period spread cost of casting aluminum alloy involves various fees such as transaction fees, storage fees, and capital costs. For the AD2601 - AD2602 spread on December 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 8.82 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 90.89 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 100 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot - futures arbitrage cost calculation of casting aluminum alloy takes into account factors such as spot price, storage fees, capital costs, and trading fees. Based on the current situation, the spot price is 21,200 yuan/ton, and the calculated warehouse receipt cost is 22,140.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with relatively fast year - on - year growth [16][20]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has widened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum is flat, while the monthly start - up rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy has its own distribution characteristics by region. Currently, the ADC12 cost is mainly composed of scrap aluminum and is estimated to be in a loss state [30][40][47]. - The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is currently closed [52][57]. - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided, along with their respective proportion distribution by region [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market [66].