铜产业链周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices had a significant correction on Friday night due to the increased sensitivity of high - level prices to negative factors. The short - term domestic spot driving logic weakened, but long - term supply shortages and consumption recovery expectations still supported copper prices. It was recommended to buy on dips, and attention could be paid to internal and external reverse arbitrage opportunities [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volatility: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and INE copper expanded, while that of COMEX copper decreased. The LME copper price volatility was around 13%, and the SHFE copper volatility was about 15% [10]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper flattened, and the spot premium of LME copper declined. The 12 - 01 spread of SHFE copper was - 60 yuan/ton on December 12, and the LME 0 - 3 premium was 20.69 dollars/ton on the same day [16][18]. - Position: The position of LME copper increased, while those of COMEX and SHFE decreased. The position of SHFE copper decreased by 6,748 lots to 646,900 lots [19]. - Capital and Industrial Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises increased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial decreased [25]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium rebounded. The domestic copper spot changed from a premium of 170 yuan/ton on December 5 to a discount of 20 yuan/ton on December 12 [29][31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory increased, with a significant increase in COMEX inventory. The global total inventory increased from 788,800 tons on December 4 to 803,400 tons on December 11 [32][35]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper fluctuated, and that of SHFE copper was at a neutral level in the same period of history [36]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate increased year - on - year, and the processing fee remained weak. In October 2025, the import volume of copper concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94% [39]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper increased year - on - year, and the domestic production increased significantly. In October, the import of recycled copper was 196,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.35% [42]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper increased month - on - month, and the processing fee rebounded. In October, the import of blister copper was 55,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% [51]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper increased year - on - year, the import decreased, and the loss of copper spot import expanded. In November, the production of refined copper was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75% [54]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In November, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils rebounded but were at a low level in the same period of history [57]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods was at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes rebounded. As of December 12, the processing fee of copper rods for the power industry in East China was 385 yuan/ton [63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a relatively low - neutral level in the same period of history [64]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods rebounded, and that of wire and cable decreased slightly. In November, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Consumption: The apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was still an important support. From January to October, the cumulative consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36% [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: In October, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.1326 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 27.92%, and the new - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.12% [74].