锌产业链周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows neutral to strong strength, with prices fluctuating at a high level both domestically and internationally [2]. - Domestic zinc inventories continue to decline, and galvanizing开工率 has rebounded [3][4]. - The domestic zinc supply is expected to decrease due to large losses in imported zinc concentrates and the shutdown of northern mines at the end of the year. The consumption side is in the off - season, and downstream demand is seasonally weak [6]. - Abnormal premium structures have appeared in London this year, indicating a shortage of overseas spot supplies. Although the export window has opened and domestic supplies have flowed overseas, the LME inventory accumulation is slow, and the risk of overseas inventory structure still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but in the short term, prices may have upward elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - Price and Volume: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,605 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 23,305 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,139 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.31% [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 9,447 tons to 51,282 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 11,339 tons to 80,577 tons. The social inventory decreased by 12,100 tons to 128,200 tons. The LME zinc inventory increased by 6,550 tons to 61,925 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3,300 tons [7]. - Processing Fees and Profits: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 58 dollars/ton to 51 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 2,050 yuan/ton to 1,850 yuan/ton. The imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 239 yuan/ton to - 5,003 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 176 yuan/ton to - 1,442 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2. Industry Chain Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - Profit: Zinc ore enterprises' profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history, while smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [12][13]. - 开工率: Zinc concentrate开工率 has rebounded and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc开工率 has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing开工率 has rebounded, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide开工率 have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable and the LME CASH - 3M declining from a high level [18][19]. - Spreads: The C - structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [21]. - Inventory: Domestic inventories have shown a slight decline this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has remained flat. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory has remained flat this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [27][32][35]. - Futures: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same period in history [36]. 3.4. Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [39][40]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting production has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [46][47]. - Imports and Exports: The refined zinc import volume is not clearly stated, and the export situation shows that although the export window has opened, the volume of goods delivered to warehouses is relatively limited [48]. 3.5. Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - Downstream: The monthly开工率 of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [55][71]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are provided, and the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries is also shown, but specific analysis conclusions are not clearly stated [73][74][76].