生猪：冬至旺季预期落地，等待供应兑现

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is expected to peak around the Winter Solstice and then decline. The spot price of live pigs is expected to be under pressure next week, while the LH2601 futures contract may face a regression of the basis - convergence logic [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (12.8 - 12.14) - Spot Market: The price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 11.43 yuan/kg (down from 11.53 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased after the temperature dropped [1]. - Futures Market: The price of the live pig futures LH2601 contract fluctuated strongly. The highest price was 11660 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11355 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11485 yuan/ton (up from 11385 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was - 55 yuan/ton (down from 145 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (12.8 - 12.14) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is in a continuous incremental stage, and the demand has increased after the temperature dropped, but the supply pressure needs to be released. It is expected that the number of slaughtered pigs will increase significantly next week, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - Futures Market: The price of the LH2601 contract was 11485 yuan/ton on December 12. The supply pressure has not been effectively released, and there is an expectation of demand decline after the Winter Solstice. The basis - convergence logic will return. The support level of the short - term LH2601 contract is 10500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - Basis and Spread: This week's basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 spread was 160 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: The average slaughter weight this week was 124.59KG (down 0.04% from last week). In October, the pork output was 5.605 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%; the pork import was 7.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.14% [1][12].