铁矿石周度观点-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand expectation for iron ore has weakened marginally, leading to a price correction. The iron ore's high valuation is hard to sustain. With recent macro - events settled, the ore price has corrected from its high. However, the excessive decline in coal and coke has triggered the seesaw effect between ore and coke. Coupled with positive policies on the downstream demand side, the depth of the ore price correction is relatively limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Overseas Shipment - Global iron ore shipment remains at a relatively high level. The non - mainstream supply mainly has incremental growth from India and Canada. Rumors about the negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP are ongoing, and some ore brands may be affected [5] - In the latest week, global shipment is 3368.6 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 45.4 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 706.1 thousand tons. The cumulative shipment from the beginning of the year to the 49th week in 2025 is 153173.9 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3962 thousand tons [4] 3.1.2 Mainstream Mines - Australia and Brazil's shipment performance is neutral, and freight rates have declined. Rio Tinto has a relatively large incremental increase in shipment to China in the recent week, with a week - on - week increase of 170.5 thousand tons [17][19] 3.1.3 Non - mainstream Mines - India and Canada contribute the main incremental growth in non - mainstream supply [21] 3.1.4 Domestic Mines - The production and operation rate in Southwest China remains relatively low [29] 3.2 Demand 3.2.1 Downstream Demand - Iron - making water production, the production of major steel products, and port ore - handling volume all show signs of weakening. The 247 - enterprise iron - making water production is 2292 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1 thousand tons [31][4] 3.2.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - Due to the relatively weak performance of iron ore, coal and coke prices, the cost support for iron - making water has declined, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded from a low level [32] 3.3 Inventory - The overall port inventory is rising, but the slope is relatively gentle [36][38] 3.4 Downstream Profits - The decline in coking coal and coke prices helps to repair downstream profits [40] 3.5 Spot Category Price Difference - The inventory contradiction of port iron concentrate has further intensified recently, and the price difference between Tangshan iron concentrate and PB powder has decreased significantly [42] 3.6 Futures Monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 monthly spread has stabilized, and the year - on - year level is lower than that of last year [44] 3.7 Basis Performance - Recently, the spot and futures price trends have been relatively consistent, and the basis performance has also stabilized [48] 3.8 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has fluctuated weakly, closing at 754.5 yuan/ton. The position is 465,500 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 56,800 lots. The average daily trading volume is 278,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 156,200 lots [7] 3.9 Spot Price Performance - The spot price has also declined. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) in Qingdao Port has dropped from 870 yuan/ton last week to 865 yuan/ton this week [12]