镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险，不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of refined nickel have undergone a structural shift, but the current and expected overall surplus still restricts the upside of nickel prices. From the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, attention should be paid to the impact of hidden restocking and news from Indonesia. Short - term short - selling at low levels is not recommended, and opportunities for short - selling on rallies in the medium - to - long - term can be considered, combined with options for upside risk protection [1]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the valuation range is anchored by costs and profits. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should also be paid to the policy risks from Indonesia from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Fundamentals: Refined nickel is moving towards a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure. Many enterprises have shifted to nickel sulfate production, and the slope of refined nickel inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the overall surplus and the expectation of wet - process production may still drag down nickel prices. Attention should be paid to hidden restocking expectations and news risks from Indonesia [1]. - Inventory: This week, China's social refined nickel inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons [3]. Stainless Steel Market - Fundamentals: The supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak. The production schedule in December decreased to 3.16 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cost center has shifted upward, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. - Inventory: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. On December 11, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.55% week - on - week [5]. New Energy Sector - Inventory: On December 12, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by +1, 0, 0 month - on - month to 5, 9, 7 days respectively. On December 4, the precursor inventory increased by 0.4 week - on - week to 12.8 days. On December 11, the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days week - on - week [4][5]. Market News - In Indonesia, the forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect a monthly nickel ore production of about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for some products. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production due to safety inspections [6][8]. - The US President Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software". New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [7][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 115,590, with a change of - 280 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,565, with a change of +65 compared to the previous day [10].