Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pork price is expected to rise due to limited supply before the New Year, with the average price of live pigs at 11.43 yuan/kg as of December 12, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.22 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 4.33% [12][13] - The beef market is showing signs of a bullish cycle, with the wholesale price of beef at 66.24 yuan/kg, up 10.22% year-on-year, and calf prices at 32.23 yuan/kg, up 33.68% year-on-year [24] - The pig farming sector is facing accelerated losses, leading to a potential increase in the pace of pig culling, while the pet sector is benefiting from domestic brand growth due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [27][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The cold wave is boosting pork consumption as the pickled meat season approaches, with limited supply expected before the New Year [12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 129.63 kg, with a decrease in the proportion of smallholder sales [12][13] Weekly Market Performance (Dec 8-12) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.26 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34% and the agricultural index down 0.08% [32] - Leading stocks included *ST Zhengbang (+19.40%), Biological Shares (+17.16%), and Luoniushan (+13.73%) [32][39] Price Tracking (Dec 8-12) - The average price of live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, up 2.50% week-on-week, while the price of piglets was 19.04 yuan/kg, down 1.14% [41] - The average price of beef was 66.13 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease [48] Key News (Dec 8-12) - China's soybean imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 104 million tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, with a price drop of 10.7% [40]
农林牧渔行业周报：腌腊渐入旺季支撑猪价上行，犊牛价格上行彰显牛周期景气-20251214
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-12-14 08:11