煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：港口库存持续累计，煤价维持下行走势-20251214

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal price inventory is at a high level, with downstream heating demand having been released early. Coupled with the pressure from renewable energy sources such as hydropower and wind power on thermal power generation, coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds, with premium income showing positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, along with high dividend assets, suggests a shift in equity allocation preferences towards resource stocks [2][38] Summary by Sections Industry Current Situation - During the week of December 8 to December 12, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 40 CNY/ton, closing at 745 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8384 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons week-on-week, down 5.76%. The average daily outflow was 1.6327 million tons, also down by 100,000 tons, a decrease of 5.72%. The inventory at the four ports increased to 29.157 million tons, up 1.54 million tons, an increase of 5.59% [1][29][33] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at production sites showed a mixed trend, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong down by 25 CNY/ton to 610 CNY/ton, while the price of 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 430 CNY/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou decreased by 30 CNY/ton to 980 CNY/ton [16] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim region fell by 3 CNY/ton to 703 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index for 5500 kcal thermal coal dropped by 6 CNY/ton to 709 CNY/ton [18] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in the thermal coal sector, particularly those with low valuations, such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2][38]