国泰君安期货能源化工：玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251214

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass - The trend is oscillating weakly, but short - selling at low levels requires caution. The short - term support lies in the relatively low valuation and high positions, which may lead to short - covering in the near - term contracts. However, factors such as forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season effects will suppress the price. The glass market is expected to fluctuate between low near - term valuation and lack of upward drivers. Attention should be paid to real - estate rescue policies and supply - side production cut expectations [2]. 纯碱 - The medium - term trend is oscillating weakly, and short - selling at low levels also requires caution. Supply surplus, forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core drivers for the price decline. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry can drive the market. Although the current operating rate is declining, the downward driving force is weakening, but the future delivery pressure cannot be underestimated. The room for a continuous sharp decline in price is limited at present [3][4]. Summary by Directory Glass Supply - There were slight changes in float glass production lines this week. One production line in East China was restarted and ignited, but no products were produced, and the weekly output decreased slightly. As of December 11, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 219 in production and 77 cold - repaired and shut down. The start - up rate of the float glass industry was 73.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.48%. The daily output of national float glass on December 11, 2025, was 155,000 tons, the same as on the 4th. It should be noted that production cuts usually occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 17,730 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of potentially newly ignited production lines was 14,190 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of potentially restarted old production lines was 9,530 tons, and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines was 9,100 tons/day [9][10][11]. Price and Profit - Some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,060 - 1,080 yuan/ton (a few reduced by 20 yuan/ton), in Hubei in Central China it was about 1,060 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,180 - 1,220 yuan/ton (mostly stable). The basis and spread have remained stable recently, with the basis slightly stronger and the spread stronger. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was about 35 yuan/ton, while the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel were about - 196 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively [19][22][26]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - This week's trading was differentiated, with good trading in major consumption areas and weak trading in major production areas. The total inventory decreased slightly. Different from previous years, inventory reduction started in the third quarter this year, and the intensity of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter was not strong. Regional arbitrage opportunities were limited as price differences between regions changed little [34][36][38]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The recent market trading has weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 11.5 - 12 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08%, and the decline was 2.08 percentage points larger than last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60%, and the decline was 1.32 percentage points larger than last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - The recent market trading has weakened, and the inventory is expected to rise seasonally later. There were a total of 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The sample inventory days were about 33.06 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.41%, and the increase was 0.49 percentage points larger than last week [46][47][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production units had staged maintenance and load reduction. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.3%, up from 80.7% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 397,800 tons/week. Under the background of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production cut efforts or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive the rigid demand and inventory replenishment of glass. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been actively limiting production, and the output is expected to recover slightly next week. Although the glass production capacity remains stable, there is still pressure from new soda ash production capacity in the future [58][60][63]. Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4943 million tons, a decrease of 44,300 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 2.88%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 703,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 790,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,300 tons. The inventory was 163,450 tons lower than the same period last year, a decline of 8.58% [4][67][68]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was about 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe was 1,100 yuan/ton, and a few had slight price cuts. The factory ex - works price remained unchanged. Due to recent production cuts and inventory decline, the spread should not be overly bearish. The profit of the combined soda production method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 49 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda production method in North China was - 68 yuan/ton [73][77][83].