豆粕：低位震荡，豆一：区间运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Next week (12.15 - 12.19), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, the current price of US soybeans is in a correction phase, and attention should be paid to China's purchasing situation. If China makes purchases at low prices, the downside space for US soybeans is expected to be limited. In the domestic market, due to concerns about customs clearance issues, the price is slightly stronger. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is affected by market news and sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Summary by Related Content 1. Price Performance Last Week (12.08 - 12.12) - US soybean futures prices mainly declined. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main January 01 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 2.62%, and the main January 01 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.76% [1]. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices first declined and then rose, while soybean futures prices were relatively strong. The main m2605 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.81%, and the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.55% [1]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (12.08 - 12.12) - China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was bullish in itself but lower than market expectations. From December 8 to 12, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans to China and unknown destinations was about 1.221 million tons (for the 2025/26 delivery year) [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, with a neutral to bearish impact. As of the week of December 12, the average weekly CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, and the average import cost decreased week - on - week (due to the decline in the US soybean futures market) [1]. - Brazilian soybean planting was nearly completed. As of the week of December 4, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 94%, compared with about 95% in the same period last year [1]. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans was slow, with a limited impact. As of the week of December 11, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 58%, compared with about 66% in the same period last year [1]. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America showed that in the next two weeks (December 13 - 27), there would be more precipitation and lower temperatures in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil, and the precipitation and temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina would be basically normal. Overall, the weather problem was not significant, with a neutral to slightly bearish impact [1]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation Last Week (12.08 - 12.12) - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 180,000 tons, compared with about 140,000 tons in the previous week [2][3]. - The提货 volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average daily提货 volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 195,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 293 yuan/ton, compared with about 226 yuan/ton in the previous week (after the roll - over of the main contract) and about 250 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - The inventory of soybean meal slightly decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of December 5, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 1.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decline of about 2% and a year - on - year increase of about 75% [3]. - The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to remain stable next week. As of the week of December 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.04 million tons (2.06 million tons in the previous week and 1.87 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 56% (57% in the previous week and 53% in the same period last year). Next week (December 13 - 19), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.04 million tons (1.87 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 56% (53% in the same period last year) [3]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Situation Last Week (12.08 - 12.12) - The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean soybeans passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,040 - 4,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In some parts of the Inner Pass region, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,460 - 4,680 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [4]. - State - reserve purchases continued without new storage points. The state - reserve purchases of soybeans in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia continued, providing support for the soybean price in Northeast China [4]. - The purchase price in the Northeast production area continued to rise. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell and slow - paced purchases, the purchase price of trading entities with orders and the need to return grain in the Northeast production area continued to rise. However, most traders reported that the sales speed to the market was slow, and they mainly fulfilled previous contracts [4]. - The trading of Northeast soybeans in the sales areas was slow. Dealers in many places reported that the trading of Northeast soybeans was generally slow. Downstream markets at all levels had inventories and needed time to consume them. The slow trading of terminal soy products was the main factor restricting the operating rate of soybean product factories and the purchase of raw soybeans [4].