聚酯数据周报-20251214

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PX market has limited upside potential. Although the supply is tight before the holiday, the demand is weakening, and the polyester start - up decline may bring negative feedback. The PXN is expanding, but the valuation support from the blending oil logic is weakening [3]. - The PTA market also has limited upside potential. The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester industry is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, which may lead to a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The PTA processing fee is continuously compressed [5]. - For MEG, it is at a low - valuation level, and short - selling is not recommended. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and it is advisable to operate in the range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory PX - Valuation and Profit - The PX futures forward curve shows a forward decline, and attention should be paid to the 01 - contract warehouse receipt pressure. The supply is tight, the near - end is strengthening, and the PXN is rising. The gasoline cracking spread is falling, which is negative for the blending oil market. The aromatics blending oil economy is weakening [20][26][31]. - The PX - MX spread has soared, and the Asian MX blending oil economy has significantly declined, while the overseas MX isomerization economy has increased [47][49]. - Supply and Inventory - The domestic PX start - up rate is at a historical high, with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian start - up rate is 78.6% (- 0.1%). There are expectations of supply contraction in the future, such as the Zhejiang Petrochemical's CDU maintenance in January [61]. - In October, the PX import volume was 830,000 tons. The import from South Korea has increased, while that from Saudi Arabia has been low [63][65]. - In November, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong accumulated 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [84]. PTA - Valuation and Profit - The PTA basis and monthly spread have rebounded at a low level driven by raw materials, but the spot supply is still in surplus. The processing fee has been at a low level for a long time [90][100]. - Supply and Inventory - The PTA start - up rate remains at 73.7%, with a weekly output of about 1.44 million tons. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative PTA output was 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [101][102]. - In October, the PTA export volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory holding willingness is low, and the warehouse receipt volume is continuously increasing [104][120]. MEG - Valuation and Profit - The MEG monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price has reached a new low. The relative valuation has been continuously decreasing, and the profit of various production processes is in a loss state [133][137][140]. - Supply and Inventory - The MEG start - up rate is 70% (- 3%), and the weekly domestic supply is about 400,000 tons. Many coal - chemical and ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads due to low profits [141][142]. - In October, the MEG import volume was 650,000 tons, and in November, it was over 720,000 tons. The overseas inventory is high, and the arrival volume remains at a high level, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory [143][152]. Polyester Segment - Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (- 0.6%), maintaining a high level. The start - up rate is expected to be 91% in December, 89% in January, and 84% in February [156][159]. - Inventory - The downstream sales are sluggish seasonally, and the inventory has begun to rise. The filament (POY/FDY) equity inventory is about half a month, the short - fiber inventory is at a low level both this year and in the same period of history, and the bottle - chip inventory has slightly increased [166][172]. - Export - From January to October, the total polyester export volume was 12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of various polyester products has also increased to different extents [173][176]. - Profit - The texturing profit is acceptable, but the FDY loss has expanded, and the POY is at the break - even point, which may affect the filament start - up enthusiasm [177]. Terminal (Weaving and Apparel) - Demand and Start - up - The overall demand is weakening. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 67% (- 2%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 83% (- 2%) [198]. - Inventory and Sales - The domestic demand orders have declined month - on - month, and the de - stocking speed of grey fabric inventory has slowed down. The new order atmosphere is weak, the shipment situation has deteriorated, and the fabric price has declined locally [201][202]. - Retail and Export - From January to October, the retail sales of Chinese clothing, footwear, and textiles were 106.127 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative export from January to October was 126.2 billion US dollars, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [203][209]. - Overseas, the clothing retail data in the US and Europe have risen strongly, while the overseas textile and clothing inventory has slightly declined month - on - month [213][219].