成交下行压力加大，关注后续政策落地

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant declines in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes in major cities, driven by high base effects and moderate policy impacts [2][8]. - The central economic work conference has outlined future real estate policies focusing on city-specific measures, inventory reduction, and encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past twelve months, the real estate sector has shown a relative performance of -27% compared to the CSI 300 index [4][5]. - In December, the average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in Beijing dropped by 30.2% year-on-year, while new homes saw a 57% decline [5]. Transaction Data - In Shanghai, second-hand home transactions decreased by 18% year-on-year, while new home transactions increased by 16% [5]. - Shenzhen experienced a 45% year-on-year decline in second-hand home transactions and a 76% drop in new home transactions [6]. Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for further policy measures to stabilize the housing market, particularly in light of the high transaction base from the previous year [8]. - Key areas of focus include the acquisition of existing homes and reforms to the housing provident fund system, which are expected to stimulate demand [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and those benefiting from increased second-hand home transaction ratios, such as Poly Developments and I Love My Home [8].