——策略周专题（2025年12月第2期）：新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a cross-year rally supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range and enhancing market confidence through policy incentives [4][22][26] - Major A-share indices mostly rose this week, with the ChiNext Index, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 500 leading in gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 saw declines [1][13][15] - The current valuation levels of indices such as Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A are relatively high, with their PE (TTM) percentile ranks exceeding 80% as of December 12, 2025 [1][14][27] Group 2 - The central economic work conference emphasized a stable yet progressive approach, continuing with a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support domestic economic growth [2][42][26] - Economic data shows that the social financing scale increased by 8.5% year-on-year as of the end of November, indicating reasonable growth in financial totals, while the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year [43][44] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with TMT likely to lead in a liquidity-driven market, while advanced manufacturing may take precedence in a fundamentals-driven market [32][38][4] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant divergence in industry performance, with sectors such as telecommunications, defense, and electronics showing strong gains, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate faced declines [15][54] - The market is currently experiencing notable volatility due to a combination of domestic and international events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the release of key economic data [3][18][45] - Historical patterns suggest that the A-share market tends to perform well in the opening years of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, indicating a potential for positive performance in 2026 as well [26][28]