2026年投资展望系列之七：2026产业债，低利差下的结构博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the demand for credit bonds may slow down. The incremental funds on the demand - side may slow, and the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [1][2]. - In 2026, credit spreads may show characteristics of low - level and high - volatility. There are structural opportunities in industrial bonds, including opportunities driven by the opening of amortized debt funds, trading opportunities for ultra - long bonds, exploration of perpetual bond spreads, and opportunities for sci - tech bond component bonds [3][5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Industrial Bond Supply and Performance - Driven by the new regulations on sci - tech bonds, the supply of industrial bonds increased in 2025, with central enterprises as the main force. From January to November 2025, industrial bond issuance was 7.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 798.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 478 billion yuan. Among them, sci - tech industrial bond issuance was 1.51 trillion yuan, and net financing accounted for 54% of industrial bond net financing [12]. - The credit spreads of industrial bonds in 2025 experienced a process of widening, narrowing, and low - level oscillation. The performance of long - duration varieties was weaker than that of medium - and short - duration varieties, and there were differences among industries [26]. 3.2 2026 Credit Bond Demand 3.2.1 Demand - side: Incremental Funds Slow Down - Although the decline in deposit rates may continue to drive the migration of residents' assets to wealth management products, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds may be difficult to increase due to the completion of the rectification of net - value smoothing means and the low - spread environment. In Q2 2025, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds was 38.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared with Q4 2024 [1][36]. - The new regulations on fund sales fees may cause redemption pressure on bond funds, especially short - term and medium - short - term bond funds. Assuming different redemption ratios, the scale of bonds involved is about 1.04 - 2.07 trillion yuan, including about 330.9 - 661.8 billion yuan of credit bonds [1][42]. - In 2026, amortized debt funds will be concentratedly opened, with an expected scale of over 600 billion yuan. If some products switch to a credit style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities [2][50]. - Credit bond ETFs are not affected by the new regulations and are expected to attract some incremental funds, but the increase may be less than that in 2025. In 2025, the scale of credit bond ETFs increased significantly, but in 2026, the market may not see a large - scale new issuance [52][53]. 3.2.2 Supply - side: Industrial Bond Supply Continues to Increase, and the "Yield Shortage" Remains In 2026, due to the low bond - issuing interest rate and the "green channel" for sci - tech bond issuance, the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the issuance policy for urban investment bonds remains strict, and new financing is restricted. The credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [2]. 3.3 Structural Opportunities for Industrial Bonds under Low Spreads - Opportunities Driven by the Opening of Amortized Debt Funds: In 2026, the opening of amortized debt funds with a 5 - year - around closed - end period may drive the allocation demand for medium - and high - rated industrial bonds with a 5 - year - around maturity. 30 industrial entities with cost - effective 4 - 5 - year bonds are recommended [5][62]. - Duration Strategy: Grasp the Trading Rhythm: When the 10 - year Treasury bond has a downward trend, or when the long - end interest rate fluctuates with limited upward space, and the long - duration credit spreads break through or approach the mean + 2 times the standard deviation, and at the same time, the net purchase scale of credit bonds is relatively high, the net purchase scale of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds by funds rebounds, and the number of transactions and the proportion of credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years increase, it is a relatively good time to trade ultra - long credit bonds. When the long - duration credit spreads narrow significantly and the trading activity of long - duration credit bonds is extremely high, it is necessary to be vigilant about the market reversal and grasp the profit - taking opportunity. 39 industrial entities with relatively active ultra - long bond transactions are selected [65][78][79]. - Exploration of Industrial Bond Perpetual Variety Spreads: As of December 5, 2025, the outstanding scale of public perpetual bonds of industrial entities was 2.56 trillion yuan. The spread of 3 - year perpetual industrial bonds is currently at a relatively cost - effective level. According to historical and seasonal rules, the first quarter may be a good time to allocate perpetual bonds, and profit - taking can be considered when the spread narrows to a low level and the buying power of credit bonds weakens. 44 industrial entities with cost - effective 2 - 3 - year perpetual bonds are listed [88][93]. - Opportunities for the Liquidity Spread of Sci - tech Bond Component Bonds: In 2026, sci - tech bonds are still in an expansion cycle. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in the net value and scale of sci - tech bond ETFs and the trading activity of sci - tech bond component bonds. They can also judge the cost - effectiveness based on the spread between non - component bonds and component bonds of the same entity with the same remaining maturity. For "quasi - component bonds" in primary issuance, if the coupon rate of new bonds is higher than the valuation of component bonds, investors can participate in primary subscriptions to obtain price - difference benefits [95][97].