Group 1 - The report highlights a significant difference in the timing of the spring rally between the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market, with the former typically occurring from Christmas to the Lunar New Year, while the latter occurs after the Lunar New Year until the Two Sessions [8][9]. - Historical data shows that during the past 15 years, the probability of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising during the spring rally period is 80.0% and 72.7% respectively, with median gains of 4.7% and 6.3% [13][24]. - The report suggests that constructing a trading strategy focused on the spring rally in Hong Kong stocks has historically yielded positive returns, indicating a high probability of profit when investing during this period [24][25]. Group 2 - The report discusses conditions under which the spring rally may fail or be delayed, noting that in 2014, a significant liquidity shock from overseas markets led to the absence of a spring rally, while in 2016 and 2024, risk events caused delays [27][28]. - Factors contributing to a strong spring rally include unexpected liquidity easing and positive macroeconomic data, as seen in 2021 and 2023, where the Hang Seng Index rose by 14.7% and 15.1% respectively [33][34]. - Current concerns regarding liquidity include the impact of Japanese carry trades, the peak of stock unlocks, and the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chair, but the report concludes that these factors are unlikely to prevent the spring rally in 2026 [37][38].
港股市场策略展望：本轮港股春季躁动会缺席吗？