国泰君安期货能源化工：燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fuel oil market remains weak this week, with prices continuing a slight downward trend. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports have increased again, and high - sulfur exports to Latin America are showing signs of recovery. However, the shipping volume from Singapore and Malaysia remains low, and the spot inventory in the Singapore market is still accumulating, keeping the spot price weak. But from the shipping schedule data, Russia's exports have started to decline continuously, and the number of floating storage has continued to rise, which may support the high - sulfur price. For low - sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian refineries are about to resume operation gradually this month, which will put pressure on the market. Meanwhile, the FCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery will last until January, and low - sulfur spot from Africa will continue to flow to Asia - Pacific. However, the latest news shows that the restart of the residue hydrotreating unit of the Al - Zour refinery will be postponed again, and there will still be a market gap until January, which will support the low - sulfur valuation [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2400 - 2500, and LU is in the range of 2900 - 3050 [4]. - Strategies: - Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. - Inter - period: The contango structure of FU and LU month - spreads has returned, and it is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. - Inter - variety: The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Refinery Operation: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: The monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [19][20]. Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: The monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are shown [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, ARA fuel oil in Europe, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: The FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 are presented [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: The FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, as well as the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are shown [39][40][42][44][45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures from 2021 - 2025 [48][49][51][53]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: The high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [55][56]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads: The cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are shown [60][61][62]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month - Spreads: The month - spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are presented [64][66][67]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are shown [71][73][74]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, Russia, and Latin America are presented [76]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, and the Middle East are shown [78]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: The Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline during the week, and the Zhoushan market moved in sync. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU was relatively weak, while the internal - external spread of LU began to gradually rebound [81]. - Logic: For FU, short positions still lead long positions, and there are still a large number of warehouse receipts on the market, resulting in FU's performance being relatively weaker than that of the external spot, and the spread continues to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts decreased after the delivery, which supported the internal - external spread [82]. - Internal - External Spreads Data: The internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, LU continuous contract, LU first - month contract, and LU second - month contract from December 8 - 12, 2025 are presented [83]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Fuel Oil Main Contract: The trading volume and position volume of the fuel oil main contract from 2020 - 2025 are presented [95][97]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Contracts: The trading volume and position volume of low - sulfur fuel oil continuous and first - month contracts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [100][102][103]. FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - The quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [106][107].